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<p><i>Vibrio parahaemolyticus</i> (<i>Vp</i>) poses a significant public health concern in marine environments. This study evaluated the occurrence and health risk of <i>Vp</i> in coastal waters of the southern Caspian Sea during summer 2022 using the WHO-recommended QMRA framework. Forty-eight seawater samples collected from two beaches in Guilan Province revealed <i>Vp</i> concentrations ranging from 1.9 × 10⁵ to 5.0 × 10⁵ CFU L⁻¹. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to quantify uncertainty, showing higher median probabilities of illness (<i>P</i><sub><i>ill</i></sub>) at Beach B (children: 9.0 × 10⁻³; adults: 3.7–5.8 × 10⁻³) than at Beach A (children: 5.0 × 10⁻³; adults: 2.0–3.4 × 10⁻³), all below the US. EPA threshold (0.036). The estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) exceeded the WHO reference level (10⁻⁶ pppy) but remained below the US. EPA benchmark (10⁻⁴ pppy), indicating a low but non-negligible health burden, particularly among children. In addition, statistical analysis revealed positive correlations between <i>Vp</i> and salinity, temperature, and turbidity, and a negative correlation with pH. Sensitivity analysis revealed that <i>Vp</i> concentration was the dominant factor at Beach A, while ingested water volume had the greatest influence at Beach B. These results support targeted management measures to mitigate microbial risks in recreational waters.</p>

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Occurrence, environmental correlates, and risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Caspian sea coastal waters

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月28日

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  • Mohammad Ahmadi,
  • Ali Esrafili,
  • Hamidreza Pazoki-Toroudi,
  • Fazel Gorjipour,
  • Roshanak Rezaei Kalantary

摘要

Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) poses a significant public health concern in marine environments. This study evaluated the occurrence and health risk of Vp in coastal waters of the southern Caspian Sea during summer 2022 using the WHO-recommended QMRA framework. Forty-eight seawater samples collected from two beaches in Guilan Province revealed Vp concentrations ranging from 1.9 × 10⁵ to 5.0 × 10⁵ CFU L⁻¹. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to quantify uncertainty, showing higher median probabilities of illness (Pill) at Beach B (children: 9.0 × 10⁻³; adults: 3.7–5.8 × 10⁻³) than at Beach A (children: 5.0 × 10⁻³; adults: 2.0–3.4 × 10⁻³), all below the US. EPA threshold (0.036). The estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) exceeded the WHO reference level (10⁻⁶ pppy) but remained below the US. EPA benchmark (10⁻⁴ pppy), indicating a low but non-negligible health burden, particularly among children. In addition, statistical analysis revealed positive correlations between Vp and salinity, temperature, and turbidity, and a negative correlation with pH. Sensitivity analysis revealed that Vp concentration was the dominant factor at Beach A, while ingested water volume had the greatest influence at Beach B. These results support targeted management measures to mitigate microbial risks in recreational waters.