<p>High radio frequencies observations with the Italian network of large single-dish radio telescopes resulted in <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\sim\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>450 solar images between 2018 and 2023 in K-band frequency range (18–26 GHz). Solar radio mapping at these frequencies allows the probing of the Active Regions (ARs) chromospheric magnetic field close to the Transition Region, where strong flares and coronal mass ejection events occur. Enhanced magnetic fields up to 1500–2000 G determine anomalous spectra in the ARs brightness compared to pure free-free emission, due to the addition of a steeper gyro-resonance component also associated with circular polarisation up to <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\sim\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>40%. When a significant AR spectral flattening is detected, the probability of a strong flare occurrence within <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\sim\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>30 hours is high (<InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\sim\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>89% in terms of statistical precision). Despite an approximate weekly cadence of our observations, only <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\sim\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>12% of strong flares are missed/unpredicted within this time interval. Through a correlation analysis, we assess the trade-off on the sensitivity and the robustness of this physics-based flare forecast method.</p>

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Correlation between active regions’ spectra at high radio frequencies and solar flare occurrences

  • Sara Mulas,
  • Alberto Pellizzoni,
  • Marco Marongiu,
  • Adriana Marcucci,
  • Simona Righini,
  • Maria Noemi Iacolina,
  • Elise Egron,
  • Giulia Murtas,
  • Matteo Bachetti,
  • Francesco Berrilli,
  • Alessandro Cabras,
  • Roberto Caocci,
  • Gian Luigi Deiana,
  • Salvatore Luigi Guglielmino,
  • Colby Haggerty,
  • Adelaide Ladu,
  • Sara Loru,
  • Andrea Maccaferri,
  • Pasqualino Marongiu,
  • Andrea Melis,
  • Alessandro Navarrini,
  • Alessandro Orfei,
  • Pierluigi Ortu,
  • Mauro Pili,
  • Tonino Pisanu,
  • Giuseppe Pupillo,
  • Andrea Saba,
  • Luca Schirru,
  • Giampaolo Serra,
  • Caterina Tiburzi,
  • Giuseppe Valente,
  • Alessandra Zanichelli,
  • Pietro Zucca,
  • Mauro Messerotti

摘要

High radio frequencies observations with the Italian network of large single-dish radio telescopes resulted in \(\sim\) 450 solar images between 2018 and 2023 in K-band frequency range (18–26 GHz). Solar radio mapping at these frequencies allows the probing of the Active Regions (ARs) chromospheric magnetic field close to the Transition Region, where strong flares and coronal mass ejection events occur. Enhanced magnetic fields up to 1500–2000 G determine anomalous spectra in the ARs brightness compared to pure free-free emission, due to the addition of a steeper gyro-resonance component also associated with circular polarisation up to \(\sim\) 40%. When a significant AR spectral flattening is detected, the probability of a strong flare occurrence within \(\sim\) 30 hours is high ( \(\sim\) 89% in terms of statistical precision). Despite an approximate weekly cadence of our observations, only \(\sim\) 12% of strong flares are missed/unpredicted within this time interval. Through a correlation analysis, we assess the trade-off on the sensitivity and the robustness of this physics-based flare forecast method.