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<p>The demographic–transport nexus is central to regional integration, but remains insufficiently studied in rapidly urbanizing contexts. Taking China’s Pearl River Delta (PRD) as a representative megaregion, this study uses panel data from nine PRD cities spanning 1990 to 2020. We construct an entropy-weighted indicator system and apply a coupling–coordination model in combination with a panal data regression to trace the co-evolution of population and transport systems and identify their driving forces. Findings reveal that: (1) the regional coupling-coordination index rose from 0.21 to 0.54 but still shows a clear core–periphery gradient—Guangzhou and Shenzhen already display high coordination, whereas ZhaoQing and Jiangmen lag behind; (2) economic growth, a consumption-oriented economic structure and technological progress significantly enhance coordination; (3) the 2009 PRD Master Plan mainly benefits core cities, with limited policy spill-overs; (4) medical-service provision improves coordination, while basic-education supply is not significant, highlighting service-level disparities. We recommend strengthening peripheral inter-city corridors, building 30- to 60-minute commuting rings, and linking transport investment to real-time coupling metrics and coordinated industry relocation to advance the region toward higher-level integration.</p>

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Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of population and transport coordination in the Pearl River Delta

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月2日

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  • Di Lyu,
  • Weiwang Zhu,
  • Libin Ouyang,
  • Zhaoya Gong

摘要

The demographic–transport nexus is central to regional integration, but remains insufficiently studied in rapidly urbanizing contexts. Taking China’s Pearl River Delta (PRD) as a representative megaregion, this study uses panel data from nine PRD cities spanning 1990 to 2020. We construct an entropy-weighted indicator system and apply a coupling–coordination model in combination with a panal data regression to trace the co-evolution of population and transport systems and identify their driving forces. Findings reveal that: (1) the regional coupling-coordination index rose from 0.21 to 0.54 but still shows a clear core–periphery gradient—Guangzhou and Shenzhen already display high coordination, whereas ZhaoQing and Jiangmen lag behind; (2) economic growth, a consumption-oriented economic structure and technological progress significantly enhance coordination; (3) the 2009 PRD Master Plan mainly benefits core cities, with limited policy spill-overs; (4) medical-service provision improves coordination, while basic-education supply is not significant, highlighting service-level disparities. We recommend strengthening peripheral inter-city corridors, building 30- to 60-minute commuting rings, and linking transport investment to real-time coupling metrics and coordinated industry relocation to advance the region toward higher-level integration.