<p>This study builds a framework for the green transformation of manufacturing from the dual perspectives of “technological empowerment” and “institutional regulation.” It integrates digital technology, environmental regulation, and their synergy. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces during 2012–2023, we apply a PVAR model to explore the dynamic transmission paths among these factors and the green and low-carbon transformation of manufacturing. The results show: (1) Digital technology has a phased effect on transformation: it inhibits in the short term, improves in the mid-term, and promotes in the long term, reflecting an accumulating response mechanism. (2) Environmental regulation mainly drives transformation efficiency in the short term through incentives, but its effect weakens in the long run. (3) A strong synergy between digital technology and environmental regulation has not yet emerged in the medium and long term, and their joint effects remain limited. (4) The main driving force of green and low-carbon transformation comes from internal development momentum. Compared with environmental regulation, digital technology shows much stronger explanatory power, while the marginal contribution of regulation remains small. This study suggests embedding digital tools into regulatory mechanisms, enhancing the long-term incentives of environmental regulation, and promoting cross-regional data integration to build a dual-driven model for green and low-carbon manufacturing.</p>