The global emergence of human monkeypox (Mpox) necessitates stage-structured transmission models. We develop a compartmental framework with Prodromal, Rash, and Complication stages, identifying critical thresholds through bifurcation analysis. A transcritical bifurcation at \(\beta _c = 0.1507\) day \(^{-1}\) separates stable disease-free equilibrium ( \(\mathcal {R}_0 = 0.3982\) ) from endemic spread. Normalized sensitivity analysis establishes transmission rate \(\beta\) ( \(S_\theta = 1.000\) ) as the dominant epidemic driver, with mortality \(\mu\) ( \(S_\theta = -0.662\) ) and progression rate \(\gamma _1\) ( \(S_\theta = -0.422\) ) as key modulators. Intervention analysis reveals: (1) 22.7% outbreak reduction (95% CI: 19.4–25.1%) through prodromal case isolation (days 0-5) requiring 92% diagnostic accuracy; (2) Linear \(\mathcal {R}_0\) response to transmission controls (0.0398 reduction per 10% \(\beta\) decrease); (3) Phase-adaptive resource allocation (60% to transmission reduction) sustains subcritical operation. The framework advocates real-time \(\beta\) monitoring via wastewater surveillance and \(\gamma _1\) -optimized diagnostics.
