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<p><i>Agroathelia rolfsii formally known as Sclerotium rolfsii</i> is a globally significant soilborne fungal pathogen that causes <i>Sclerotium</i> wilt disease in tomato and several other economically important crops. Effective disease surveillance and management require an understanding of the potential geographic distribution of <i>A. rolfsii</i>, particularly under varying environmental conditions. This study employed the MaxEnt modeling approach to predict the current and future global distribution of <i>A. rolfsii</i> with special emphasis on Ghana, under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070. Occurrence records compiled from field surveys and global databases, and environmental variables were used for the simulation. The model exhibited high performance (AUC = 0.999), indicating excellent predictive accuracy. Precipitation of wettest month (31.6%), mean temperature of driest quarter (28.3%), isothermality (16.5%), and precipitation of driest month (8.5%) were the most important predictors. Results revealed that suitable habitats for <i>A. rolfsii</i> extend across Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Oceania, with a marked increase in suitability projected over time. Ghana consistently appeared as a high-risk zone, with high habitat suitability under both climate emission scenarios. These findings offer vital insights for proactive disease monitoring, policy development, and the formulation of quarantine measures aimed at mitigating the potential spread and impact of <i>A. rolfsii</i> in vulnerable regions.</p>

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Modeling global habitat suitability of Agroathelia rolfsii causing Sclerotium wilt disease of tomato with emphasis on Ghana

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月30日

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  • Fred Kormla Ablormeti,
  • Philipe Guilherme Corcino Souza,
  • Richard Tuyee Awuah,
  • Charles Kodia Kwoseh,
  • Daniel Agbetiameh,
  • Alexander Wireko Kena,
  • Kwesi Atta Senior Aidoo,
  • Hanif Lutuf,
  • Frederick Leo Sossah,
  • Ricardo Siqueira da Silva,
  • Owusu Fordjour Aidoo

摘要

Agroathelia rolfsii formally known as Sclerotium rolfsii is a globally significant soilborne fungal pathogen that causes Sclerotium wilt disease in tomato and several other economically important crops. Effective disease surveillance and management require an understanding of the potential geographic distribution of A. rolfsii, particularly under varying environmental conditions. This study employed the MaxEnt modeling approach to predict the current and future global distribution of A. rolfsii with special emphasis on Ghana, under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070. Occurrence records compiled from field surveys and global databases, and environmental variables were used for the simulation. The model exhibited high performance (AUC = 0.999), indicating excellent predictive accuracy. Precipitation of wettest month (31.6%), mean temperature of driest quarter (28.3%), isothermality (16.5%), and precipitation of driest month (8.5%) were the most important predictors. Results revealed that suitable habitats for A. rolfsii extend across Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Oceania, with a marked increase in suitability projected over time. Ghana consistently appeared as a high-risk zone, with high habitat suitability under both climate emission scenarios. These findings offer vital insights for proactive disease monitoring, policy development, and the formulation of quarantine measures aimed at mitigating the potential spread and impact of A. rolfsii in vulnerable regions.