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<p>Accurate climate predictions are essential for agriculture, urban planning, and disaster management. Traditional forecasting methods often struggle with regional accuracy, computational demands, and scalability. This study proposes a Transformer-based deep learning model for daily temperature forecasting, utilizing historical climate data from Delhi (2013–2017, consisting of 1,500 daily records). The model integrates three key components: Spatial-Temporal Fusion Module (STFM) to capture spatiotemporal dependencies, Hierarchical Graph Representation and Analysis (HGRA) to model structured climate relationships, and Dynamic Temporal Graph Attention Mechanism (DT-GAM) to enhance temporal feature extraction. To improve computational efficiency and feature selection, we introduce a hybrid optimization approach (HWOA-TTA) that combines the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) and Tiki-Taka Algorithm (TTA). Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms baseline models (RF-LSTM-XGBoost, cGAN, CNN + LSTM, and MC-LSTM) by achieving 7.8% higher accuracy, 6.3% improvement in recall, and 8.1% enhancement in F1-score. Additionally, training time is reduced by 22.4% compared to conventional deep learning models, demonstrating improved computational efficiency. These findings highlight the effectiveness of hierarchical graph-based deep learning models for scalable and accurate climate forecasting. Future work will focus on validating the model across diverse climatic regions and enhancing real-time deployment feasibility.</p>

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Transformer based models with hierarchical graph representations for enhanced climate forecasting

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月2日

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  • T. Bhargava Ramu,
  • Raviteja Kocherla,
  • G. N. V. G. Sirisha,
  • V. Lakshmi Chetana,
  • P. Vidya Sagar,
  • R. Balamurali,
  • Nanditha Boddu

摘要

Accurate climate predictions are essential for agriculture, urban planning, and disaster management. Traditional forecasting methods often struggle with regional accuracy, computational demands, and scalability. This study proposes a Transformer-based deep learning model for daily temperature forecasting, utilizing historical climate data from Delhi (2013–2017, consisting of 1,500 daily records). The model integrates three key components: Spatial-Temporal Fusion Module (STFM) to capture spatiotemporal dependencies, Hierarchical Graph Representation and Analysis (HGRA) to model structured climate relationships, and Dynamic Temporal Graph Attention Mechanism (DT-GAM) to enhance temporal feature extraction. To improve computational efficiency and feature selection, we introduce a hybrid optimization approach (HWOA-TTA) that combines the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) and Tiki-Taka Algorithm (TTA). Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms baseline models (RF-LSTM-XGBoost, cGAN, CNN + LSTM, and MC-LSTM) by achieving 7.8% higher accuracy, 6.3% improvement in recall, and 8.1% enhancement in F1-score. Additionally, training time is reduced by 22.4% compared to conventional deep learning models, demonstrating improved computational efficiency. These findings highlight the effectiveness of hierarchical graph-based deep learning models for scalable and accurate climate forecasting. Future work will focus on validating the model across diverse climatic regions and enhancing real-time deployment feasibility.