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<p>This study marks the utilization of medium-range forecasts of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threats over India across all seasons from a global model. CG flashes are derived from two lightning parameterization schemes: Price and Rind (PR92) scheme and Lopez Scheme and is evaluated against earth network lightning sensor data. Both methods with existing storm detection criteria initially produced a lightning with overestimated counts and large spatial extent. Hence a Revised PR92-Lopez Blended (RPLB) scheme is developed by redefining the storm detection points in each scheme and combined them by giving separate weights for land and ocean through a regression-based approach. RPLB gives an improved skill in spatial and frequency distribution, and reduced false alarms with respect to the individual schemes up to a five-day lead time. The estimated CG flashes are then categorized into threat levels ranging up to extreme for effective use in the early warning and decision support systems.</p>

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Developing an optimized parameterization scheme for deriving a lightning threat product from a global model for all seasons over India

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月30日

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  • Greeshma. M. Mohan,
  • M. Sandhya,
  • A. Jayakumar,
  • T. J. Anurose,
  • Saji Mohandas,
  • V. S. Prasad

摘要

This study marks the utilization of medium-range forecasts of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threats over India across all seasons from a global model. CG flashes are derived from two lightning parameterization schemes: Price and Rind (PR92) scheme and Lopez Scheme and is evaluated against earth network lightning sensor data. Both methods with existing storm detection criteria initially produced a lightning with overestimated counts and large spatial extent. Hence a Revised PR92-Lopez Blended (RPLB) scheme is developed by redefining the storm detection points in each scheme and combined them by giving separate weights for land and ocean through a regression-based approach. RPLB gives an improved skill in spatial and frequency distribution, and reduced false alarms with respect to the individual schemes up to a five-day lead time. The estimated CG flashes are then categorized into threat levels ranging up to extreme for effective use in the early warning and decision support systems.