Correlation analysis between resilience and carbon emissions of resource-based cities based on scenario simulation against the dual carbon background

Studying the correlation between resilience and carbon emissions in resource-based cities (RBCs) holds considerable significance for advancing regional sustainable development. Herein, by taking 18 RBCs in southwestern China as the research object, a carbon emission impact index system and an urban resilience index system were constructed. The resilience was quantified from the three dimensions of “resources - ecology - society”, and divided into high, medium, and low categories. Besides, the LSTM model was utilized to simulate carbon peak scenarios in different types of cities and analyze the specific path to achieve low-carbon development. As indicated by the research results, between 2005 and 2020, the resilience and carbon emissions of Southwest China’s RBCs presented fluctuations and showed an upward trend. Scenario simulation suggested that highly resilient cities were poised for sustainable development and necessitated a coordinated government structure; moderately resilient cities should prioritize clean energy development; and cities with low resilience should pursue steady growth, market expansion, and enhanced communication. Overall, this study provides support for the low-carbon development of RBCs.