We investigate the influence of anthropogenic \(\hbox {CO}_2\) concentration fluctuations on the likelihood of climate-related disasters. We calibrate annual incidence rates against global disasters and \(\hbox {CO}_2\) growth spanning from 1960 to 2022 based on a dynamic panel logit model. We also study the sensitivity of disaster incidence to stochastic carbon dynamics consistent with IPCC-projected climate outcomes for 2100. The key insight is that present and lagged \(\hbox {CO}_2\) growth contains valuable information about the likelihood of future disaster events. We further show that lowering carbon stock uncertainty by dampening the persistence or the variability of \(\hbox {CO}_2\) concentration has a first-order impact on mitigating expected disaster risk.
