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<p>The US energy system is in a period of high uncertainty about load growth, its implications for the energy generation mix, and downstream impacts on customer energy costs. In this context, there is a need for comprehensive, credible, and readily-customized projections of energy demand to ensure that planning decisions account for end-use management opportunities to improve system reliability and affordability. Here we introduce the Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS) dataset, which includes a benchmark suite of such projections for the buildings sector — a key source of energy consumption, peak electricity demand, and consumer energy expenditures. The dataset contains projections through 2050 covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) resolved down to the county, hourly level by sector and end use for electricity demand and to the state, annual level by sector and end use for non-electric fuels. We summarize the BSS analysis workflow and the tools and datasets that support it, document key BSS scenario inputs and modeling assumptions, and outline BSS scenario outputs. We assess the technical quality of the dataset against historical surveys and projected estimates of buildings sector demand. Finally, we provide guidance on how stakeholders can access, use, and reproduce the dataset, and/or create new scenarios to explore their own analysis questions.</p>

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Buildings Sector Scenarios: Demand-side data to support energy system planning in the United States

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月1日

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  • Jared Langevin,
  • Margaret Pigman,
  • Andrew Parker,
  • Eric J. H. Wilson,
  • Handi Chandra Putra,
  • Yujie Xu,
  • Sam Murthy,
  • Kaiyu Sun,
  • Wanni Zhang,
  • Eric Ringold,
  • Rajendra Adhikari,
  • Yingli Lou,
  • Andrew J. Satchwell,
  • Xinwei Zhuang,
  • Matia Whiting

摘要

The US energy system is in a period of high uncertainty about load growth, its implications for the energy generation mix, and downstream impacts on customer energy costs. In this context, there is a need for comprehensive, credible, and readily-customized projections of energy demand to ensure that planning decisions account for end-use management opportunities to improve system reliability and affordability. Here we introduce the Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS) dataset, which includes a benchmark suite of such projections for the buildings sector — a key source of energy consumption, peak electricity demand, and consumer energy expenditures. The dataset contains projections through 2050 covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) resolved down to the county, hourly level by sector and end use for electricity demand and to the state, annual level by sector and end use for non-electric fuels. We summarize the BSS analysis workflow and the tools and datasets that support it, document key BSS scenario inputs and modeling assumptions, and outline BSS scenario outputs. We assess the technical quality of the dataset against historical surveys and projected estimates of buildings sector demand. Finally, we provide guidance on how stakeholders can access, use, and reproduce the dataset, and/or create new scenarios to explore their own analysis questions.