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<p>Synthetic tropical cyclone (TC) models have become essential tools for assessing TC hazard and risk, due to both the shortness of observational records and, now, the influence of climate change. However, the direct output from these models, TC track sets, requires additional processing to become useful for impact assessments beyond traditional climate science and meteorological research. Converting TC tracks into hazard maps condenses complex information on TC intensity and frequency into widely accessible formats, facilitating diverse impact analyses. Here, we present global coastal wind risk maps generated using the Columbia TC hazard model (CHAZ) for both present-day and future climate conditions. Climate scenario-driven data are provided for a recent historical period (1995–2014) and two future periods, mid-century (2041–2060) and end-of-century (2081–2100); a reference data set downscaled from an observation-based reanalysis for 1981–2019 is also provided. These hazard maps depict TC intensity exceedance probabilities and return periods, providing valuable insights to policymakers, planners, and researchers focused on disaster preparedness.</p>

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Global coastal wind hazard maps from the CHAZ tropical cyclone model

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月17日

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  • Simona Meiler,
  • Chia-Ying Lee,
  • Suzana J. Camargo,
  • Adam H. Sobel

摘要

Synthetic tropical cyclone (TC) models have become essential tools for assessing TC hazard and risk, due to both the shortness of observational records and, now, the influence of climate change. However, the direct output from these models, TC track sets, requires additional processing to become useful for impact assessments beyond traditional climate science and meteorological research. Converting TC tracks into hazard maps condenses complex information on TC intensity and frequency into widely accessible formats, facilitating diverse impact analyses. Here, we present global coastal wind risk maps generated using the Columbia TC hazard model (CHAZ) for both present-day and future climate conditions. Climate scenario-driven data are provided for a recent historical period (1995–2014) and two future periods, mid-century (2041–2060) and end-of-century (2081–2100); a reference data set downscaled from an observation-based reanalysis for 1981–2019 is also provided. These hazard maps depict TC intensity exceedance probabilities and return periods, providing valuable insights to policymakers, planners, and researchers focused on disaster preparedness.