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<p>Limiting the global temperature rise in this century to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels has become a critical challenge. One key pathway involves actions in the land sector. Forecasts of land cover/use maps can provide valuable insights for guiding such actions, but the reliability of maps strongly depends on the accuracy of the baseline land cover/use map. In this study, we selected an accurate land cover/use map—HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment+ (HILDA+), harmonized with multiple historical land cover/use maps—as the baseline land cover/use map. Additionally, we selected a future scenario that aims to achieve the 1.5 °C target and takes into account nationally determined contributions (NDCs). This scenario assumes that all parties would adhere to their submitted NDCs. We forecasted land cover/use maps at a spatial resolution of 1 km from 2020 to 2100 at a 10-year interval in China by integrating the Global Change Analysis Model, the Land-N2N model, and HILDA + land cover/use maps. These maps provide scientific guidance to support land management in addressing climate crises.</p>

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1 km HILDA + based land cover/use map time series of China under 1.5 °C climate of this century

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月11日

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  • Yifan Gao,
  • Xian Feng,
  • Changqing Song,
  • Yuanhui Wang,
  • Sijing Ye,
  • Min Zhao,
  • Delin Fang,
  • Peichao Gao

摘要

Limiting the global temperature rise in this century to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels has become a critical challenge. One key pathway involves actions in the land sector. Forecasts of land cover/use maps can provide valuable insights for guiding such actions, but the reliability of maps strongly depends on the accuracy of the baseline land cover/use map. In this study, we selected an accurate land cover/use map—HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment+ (HILDA+), harmonized with multiple historical land cover/use maps—as the baseline land cover/use map. Additionally, we selected a future scenario that aims to achieve the 1.5 °C target and takes into account nationally determined contributions (NDCs). This scenario assumes that all parties would adhere to their submitted NDCs. We forecasted land cover/use maps at a spatial resolution of 1 km from 2020 to 2100 at a 10-year interval in China by integrating the Global Change Analysis Model, the Land-N2N model, and HILDA + land cover/use maps. These maps provide scientific guidance to support land management in addressing climate crises.