<p>Insulin resistance (IR), a primary precursor to type 2 diabetes, is characterized by impaired insulin action in tissues<sup><CitationRef CitationID="CR1">1</CitationRef></sup>. However, diagnostic methods remain expensive and inaccessible, which hinders early intervention<sup><CitationRef CitationID="CR2">2</CitationRef>,<CitationRef CitationID="CR3">3</CitationRef></sup>. Here we present the WEAR-ME study, a large, remotely conducted study of IR (<i>n</i> = 1,165 participants; median body mass index (BMI) = 28 kg m<sup>−2</sup>, median&#xa0;age = 45 years, median&#xa0;haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) = 5.4%) that uses time-series data from wearable devices and routine blood biomarkers to train deep neural networks against a ground-truth measure of IR (homeostatic model assessment of IR; HOMA-IR). Using a HOMA-IR cut-off of 2.9, our multimodal model achieved robust performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.80, sensitivity = 76%, specificity = 84%) with data from wearable devices, together with demographic and routine blood biomarker data. To enhance the use of time-series data from wearables, we fine-tuned a wearable foundation model (WFM) pretrained on 40 million hours of sensor data. In an independent validation cohort (<i>n</i> = 72), a model integrating WFM-derived representations with demographic data surpassed a demographics-only baseline (AUROC = 0.75 versus 0.66). Moreover, adding WFM-derived representations to a model with demographics, fasting glucose and a lipid panel substantially improved performance, compared with an identical model without data from wearables (AUROC = 0.88 versus 0.76). We integrate IR prediction into a large language model to contextualize the results and facilitate personalized recommendations. This work establishes a scalable, accessible framework for the early detection of metabolic risk, which could enable timely lifestyle interventions to prevent progression to type 2 diabetes.</p>

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Insulin resistance prediction from wearables and routine blood biomarkers

  • Ahmed A. Metwally,
  • A. Ali Heydari,
  • Daniel McDuff,
  • Alexandru Solot,
  • Zeinab Esmaeilpour,
  • Anthony Z. Faranesh,
  • Menglian Zhou,
  • Girish Narayanswamy,
  • Maxwell A. Xu,
  • Xin Liu,
  • Yuzhe Yang,
  • David B. Savage,
  • Mark Malhotra,
  • Conor Heneghan,
  • Shwetak Patel,
  • Cathy Speed,
  • Javier L. Prieto

摘要

Insulin resistance (IR), a primary precursor to type 2 diabetes, is characterized by impaired insulin action in tissues1. However, diagnostic methods remain expensive and inaccessible, which hinders early intervention2,3. Here we present the WEAR-ME study, a large, remotely conducted study of IR (n = 1,165 participants; median body mass index (BMI) = 28 kg m−2, median age = 45 years, median haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) = 5.4%) that uses time-series data from wearable devices and routine blood biomarkers to train deep neural networks against a ground-truth measure of IR (homeostatic model assessment of IR; HOMA-IR). Using a HOMA-IR cut-off of 2.9, our multimodal model achieved robust performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.80, sensitivity = 76%, specificity = 84%) with data from wearable devices, together with demographic and routine blood biomarker data. To enhance the use of time-series data from wearables, we fine-tuned a wearable foundation model (WFM) pretrained on 40 million hours of sensor data. In an independent validation cohort (n = 72), a model integrating WFM-derived representations with demographic data surpassed a demographics-only baseline (AUROC = 0.75 versus 0.66). Moreover, adding WFM-derived representations to a model with demographics, fasting glucose and a lipid panel substantially improved performance, compared with an identical model without data from wearables (AUROC = 0.88 versus 0.76). We integrate IR prediction into a large language model to contextualize the results and facilitate personalized recommendations. This work establishes a scalable, accessible framework for the early detection of metabolic risk, which could enable timely lifestyle interventions to prevent progression to type 2 diabetes.