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<p>Pursuing replicability — independent evidence for previous claims — is important for creating generalizable knowledge<sup><CitationRef CitationID="CR1">1</CitationRef>,<CitationRef CitationID="CR2">2</CitationRef></sup>. Here we attempted replications of 274 claims of positive results from 164 quantitative papers published from 2009 to 2018 in 54 journals in the social and behavioural sciences. Replications were high powered on average to detect the original effect size (median of 99.6%), used original materials when relevant and available, and were peer reviewed in advance through a standardized internal protocol. Replications showed statistically significant results in the original pattern for 151 of 274 claims (55.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.2–60.9%)) and for 80.8 of 164 papers (49.3% (95% CI 43.8–54.7%)), weighed for replicating multiple claims per paper. We observed modest variation in replication rates across disciplines (42.5–63.1%), although some estimates had high uncertainty. The median Pearson’s <i>r</i> effect size was 0.25 (95% CI 0.21–0.27) for original studies and 0.10 (95% CI 0.09–0.13) for replication studies, an 82.4% (95% CI 67.8–88.2%) reduction in shared variance. Thirteen methods for evaluating replication success provided estimates ranging from 28.6% to 74.8% (median of 49.3%). Some decline in effect size and significance is expected based on power to detect original effects and regression to the mean because we replicated only positive results. We observe that challenges for replicability extend across social–behavioural sciences, illustrating the importance of identifying conditions that promote or inhibit replicability<sup><CitationRef CitationID="CR3">3</CitationRef>,<CitationRef CitationID="CR4">4</CitationRef></sup>.</p>

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Investigating the replicability of the social and behavioural sciences

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月1日

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  • Andrew H. Tyner,
  • Anna Lou Abatayo,
  • Mason Daley,
  • Samuel Field,
  • Nicholas Fox,
  • Noah A. Haber,
  • Krystal M. Hahn,
  • Melissa Kline Struhl,
  • Brinna Mawhinney,
  • Olivia Miske,
  • Priya Silverstein,
  • Courtney K. Soderberg,
  • Theresa Stankov,
  • Ahmed Abbasi,
  • Christopher L. Aberson,
  • Balazs Aczel,
  • Matúš Adamkovič,
  • Nihan Albayrak,
  • Peter J. Allen,
  • Michael Andreychik,
  • Eli Awtrey,
  • Erick Axxe,
  • Flavio Azevedo,
  • Miles D. Bader,
  • Bence Bago,
  • James Bailey,
  • Marjan Bakker,
  • Gabriel Banik,
  • George C. Banks,
  • Ernest Baskin,
  • Anatolia Batruch,
  • Annika Beatteay,
  • Sophie M. Behr,
  • Nicholas Berente,
  • Zachariah Berry,
  • Jędrzej Białkowski,
  • Bojana Bodroža,
  • Laura Boeschoten,
  • Miklos Bognar,
  • Christian Bokhove,
  • Diane Bonfiglio,
  • Robin Bouwman,
  • Timothy F. Brady,
  • Scott R. Braithwaite,
  • Gabriel Briceño Jiménez,
  • Cameron Brick,
  • Traci Bricka,
  • Roman Briker,
  • Annette N. Brown,
  • Gordon D. A. Brown,
  • Robbie C. M. van Aert,
  • Kathryn Caldwell,
  • Sara Capitan,
  • Tabaré Capitán,
  • Jesse Chandler,
  • Tessa Charles,
  • Christopher R. Chartier,
  • Rahul Chawdhary,
  • Kent Jason Cheng,
  • William J. Chopik,
  • Bruce Clark,
  • Victoria E. Colvin,
  • C. Cozette Comer,
  • Giulio Costantini,
  • Tom Coupé,
  • Jamie Cummins,
  • Aneta Czernatowicz-Kukuczka,
  • Joshua de Leeuw,
  • David Dobolyi,
  • James N. Druckman,
  • Jianhua Duan,
  • Marin Dujmović,
  • Daniel J. Dunleavy,
  • Patrick K. Durkee,
  • Cécile Emery,
  • Kevin M. Esterling,
  • Thomas R. Evans,
  • Anna Fedor,
  • Belén Fernández-Castilla,
  • Nathan Fiala,
  • James G. Field,
  • Nathan Fong,
  • Miguel A. Fonseca,
  • Alexandra L. J. Freeman,
  • Jeremy Freese,
  • Sandra J. Geiger,
  • Jing Geng,
  • Laura M. Getz,
  • Linda Marjoleine Geven,
  • Ilka Helene Gleibs,
  • Donna Pamella Gonzales,
  • Janaki Gooty,
  • Amélie Gourdon-Kanhukamwe,
  • Cristina Greculescu,
  • Siobhán M. Griffin,
  • Lusine Grigoryan,
  • Martina Grunow,
  • Nicholas Gunby,
  • Braeden Hall,
  • Paul H. P. Hanel,
  • Erin E. Hannon,
  • Sam Harper,
  • Marco Jürgen Held,
  • Louis Hickman,
  • Nathan C. Higgins,
  • Svenja Hippel,
  • Sven Hoeppner,
  • Sanghyun Hong,
  • Thomas J. Hostler,
  • Michael Inzlicht,
  • Kamil Izydorczak,
  • Bastian Jaeger,
  • Kristin Jankowsky,
  • Johannes Jarke-Neuert,
  • Matthew Jensen,
  • Biljana Jokić,
  • Daniel Jolles,
  • Phillip Jolly,
  • Angela M. Jones,
  • Marie Juanchich,
  • Pavol Kačmár,
  • Hansika Kapoor,
  • Andjela Keljanovic,
  • Samjhana Koirala,
  • Marta Kołczyńska,
  • Dimitra Kouroupaki,
  • Ulrich Kühnen,
  • Michelangelo Landgrave,
  • Michael J. Larson,
  • Lyonel Laulié,
  • Alice C. E. Lawrence,
  • Joel M. Le Forestier,
  • Katelin E. Leahy,
  • Sungmok Lee,
  • Jared Leslie,
  • Savannah C. Lewis,
  • Christopher Limnios,
  • Hause Lin,
  • An-Chiao Liu,
  • John Wills Lloyd,
  • Elliot A. Ludvig,
  • Dermot Lynott,
  • Jordan MacDonald,
  • Peter Mallik,
  • Daniel J. Mallinson,
  • Daniele Marinazzo,
  • Corinna S. Martarelli,
  • Joshua Matacotta,
  • Andrew McBride,
  • Cillian McHugh,
  • Gail McMillan,
  • Esteban Méndez,
  • Mitchell Metzger,
  • Michalis P. Michaelides,
  • Johannes Michalak,
  • Leticia Micheli,
  • Jeremy K. Miller,
  • Marina Milyavskaya,
  • Daniel C. Molden,
  • Ambar G. Monjaras,
  • David Moreau,
  • Audrey Morrow,
  • Cristóbal Moya,
  • Liad Mudrik,
  • Laetitia B. Mulder,
  • Katie A. Munt,
  • Arijit Nandi,
  • Kathryn Nason,
  • Carolin Nast,
  • Gideon Nave,
  • Heinrich H. Nax,
  • Florian Neubauer,
  • Phuong Linh L. Nguyen,
  • Austin Lee Nichols,
  • Gustav Nilsonne,
  • Ernest O’Boyle,
  • Jule Oettinghaus,
  • Jeewon Oh,
  • Adoril Oshana,
  • Thomas Ostermann,
  • Rachel P. Ostrowski,
  • Abiola Oyebanjo,
  • Radoslaw Panczak,
  • Jamie Patrianakos,
  • Ignacio Pavez,
  • Yuri G. Pavlov,
  • Sofia Persson,
  • Marco Perugini,
  • Kim Peters,
  • Constant Pieters,
  • Vladimir Ponizovskiy,
  • Nathaniel D. Porter,
  • Jason M. Prenoveau,
  • Danka Purić,
  • Mariah F. Purol,
  • Arathy Puthillam,
  • Kimberly A. Quinn,
  • Marco Ramljak,
  • W. Robert Reed,
  • Michaela Ritchie,
  • Margaret Ritzau,
  • Sean Patrick Roche,
  • Romina Rodela,
  • Jan Philipp Röer,
  • Ivan Ropovik,
  • Jacob Rothschild,
  • Justine Saal,
  • Hani Safadi,
  • Jason Samaha,
  • Mary Sanchez,
  • Soorya Sankaran,
  • David Santos,
  • Amanda C. Sargent,
  • Marian Sauter,
  • Kathleen Schmidt,
  • Landon Schnabel,
  • Amber N. Schroeder,
  • Sebastian W. Schuetz,
  • Brendan A. Schuetze,
  • Michael Schulte-Mecklenbeck,
  • Astrid Schütz,
  • Eric L. Sevigny,
  • Ellie Shackleton,
  • Richard M. Shafranek,
  • Samuel Shaki,
  • Shishir Shakya,
  • Miroslav Sirota,
  • Matthew Ryan Sisco,
  • Maksim M. Sitnikov,
  • L. Robert Slevc,
  • Laura Smalarz,
  • Colin Tucker Smith,
  • Joel S. Snyder,
  • Nicolas Sommet,
  • Fatih Sonmez,
  • Barbara A. Spellman,
  • Natalia Stanulewicz-Buckley,
  • George Stock,
  • Chris N. H. Street,
  • Eirik Strømland,
  • Tina Sundelin,
  • Moin Syed,
  • Anna Szabelska,
  • Barnabas Szaszi,
  • Ewa Szumowska,
  • Anirudh Tagat,
  • Susanne Täuber,
  • Louis Tay,
  • Stuti Thapa,
  • Jason Thatcher,
  • Domna Tsaklakidou,
  • Lars Tummers,
  • Elise Turkovich,
  • Melba Verra Tutor,
  • Karolina Urbanska,
  • Anna Elisabeth van ’t Veer,
  • Marcel van Assen,
  • Niels van de Ven,
  • Ruben van den Goorbergh,
  • Elisabeth Julie Vargo,
  • Leigh Ann Vaughn,
  • Simine Vazire,
  • Jentien M. Vermeulen,
  • Diem Thi Hong Vo,
  • Victor Volkman,
  • Eric-Jan Wagenmakers,
  • Deliah Wagner,
  • Lukasz Walasek,
  • Frank Walter,
  • Lara Warmelink,
  • Liuqing Wei,
  • Marie Isabelle Weißflog,
  • Nicholas Weller,
  • Aaron L. Wichman,
  • Jonathan Wilbiks,
  • Jamal R. Williams,
  • Kelly Wolfe,
  • Finnian Wort,
  • Ryan Wright,
  • Jesper N. Wulff,
  • Xindong Xue,
  • Veronica X. Yan,
  • Yuzhi Yang,
  • Sangsuk Yoon,
  • Iris Žeželj,
  • Yinxian Zhang,
  • Ignazio Ziano,
  • Cristina Zogmaister,
  • Zorana Zupan,
  • Rolf A. Zwaan,
  • Brian A. Nosek,
  • Timothy M. Errington

摘要

Pursuing replicability — independent evidence for previous claims — is important for creating generalizable knowledge1,2. Here we attempted replications of 274 claims of positive results from 164 quantitative papers published from 2009 to 2018 in 54 journals in the social and behavioural sciences. Replications were high powered on average to detect the original effect size (median of 99.6%), used original materials when relevant and available, and were peer reviewed in advance through a standardized internal protocol. Replications showed statistically significant results in the original pattern for 151 of 274 claims (55.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.2–60.9%)) and for 80.8 of 164 papers (49.3% (95% CI 43.8–54.7%)), weighed for replicating multiple claims per paper. We observed modest variation in replication rates across disciplines (42.5–63.1%), although some estimates had high uncertainty. The median Pearson’s r effect size was 0.25 (95% CI 0.21–0.27) for original studies and 0.10 (95% CI 0.09–0.13) for replication studies, an 82.4% (95% CI 67.8–88.2%) reduction in shared variance. Thirteen methods for evaluating replication success provided estimates ranging from 28.6% to 74.8% (median of 49.3%). Some decline in effect size and significance is expected based on power to detect original effects and regression to the mean because we replicated only positive results. We observe that challenges for replicability extend across social–behavioural sciences, illustrating the importance of identifying conditions that promote or inhibit replicability3,4.