Demand-side innovation is the priority for decarbonizing materials

Global industrial emissions from bulk material production continue to rise despite decades of climate policy. At present, mitigation strategies for materials have focused on supply-side technological substitution, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and new production processes. However, these approaches are constrained by structural limits to deployment rates and depend on scarce physical and socioeconomic resources. Here, we argue that bulk material production cannot be decarbonized rapidly enough through supply-side innovation alone and that disguising this reality delays the implementation of other approaches. Instead, demand-side innovation — changes in how materials are designed, used, valued and governed — must be prioritized. Using an illustrative resource-constrained model of a national transition to net zero, we show that pathways based primarily on hidden technological substitution require implausible growth in public finance, emissions-free electricity and carbon storage. By contrast, pathways centred on material efficiency, sufficiency and societal participation can deliver substantial mitigation within more realistic resource limits. These findings imply that credible material decarbonization depends on a clear policy direction that accelerates participatory change and reduces demand for primary material production. Demand-side innovation should therefore be treated not as an optional complement but as the central pillar of effective material climate policy.