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<p>Falls contribute to substantial and growing health losses worldwide, yet how they relate to economic output has not been quantified at the global level. Here we estimated the macroeconomic losses attributable to falls in 190 countries and territories for 2020–2050 using a health-augmented macroeconomic model capturing reduced labour supply from mortality and morbidity; heterogeneity in human capital by age, education and experience; and lower capital accumulation from treatment spending. Under the main specification, falls are projected to reduce global output by INT$3.939 trillion (95% uncertainty interval, 3.788–4.096), or 0.088% of the cumulative world gross domestic product. The largest absolute losses occur in the USA, followed by China and Germany. Low- and middle-income countries account for 74.8% of fall-related disability-adjusted life years but only 32.6% of the estimated economic loss, indicating a marked mismatch between health burden and monetized macroeconomic burden. The macroeconomic burden of falls is unevenly distributed globally, underscoring the need for stronger prevention efforts.</p>

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Economic burden of falls for 190 countries and territories from 2020 to 2050 based on health-augmented macroeconomic modelling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月20日

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  • Jinxi Li,
  • Ruxu Zhang,
  • Qihua Song,
  • Yanhong Gong,
  • Simiao Chen,
  • Xiaoxv Yin

摘要

Falls contribute to substantial and growing health losses worldwide, yet how they relate to economic output has not been quantified at the global level. Here we estimated the macroeconomic losses attributable to falls in 190 countries and territories for 2020–2050 using a health-augmented macroeconomic model capturing reduced labour supply from mortality and morbidity; heterogeneity in human capital by age, education and experience; and lower capital accumulation from treatment spending. Under the main specification, falls are projected to reduce global output by INT$3.939 trillion (95% uncertainty interval, 3.788–4.096), or 0.088% of the cumulative world gross domestic product. The largest absolute losses occur in the USA, followed by China and Germany. Low- and middle-income countries account for 74.8% of fall-related disability-adjusted life years but only 32.6% of the estimated economic loss, indicating a marked mismatch between health burden and monetized macroeconomic burden. The macroeconomic burden of falls is unevenly distributed globally, underscoring the need for stronger prevention efforts.