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<p>Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential are regulated under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. While China began freezing production and consumption of HFCs in 2024, there are discrepancies among previous activity-based bottom-up emissions estimates and lack of observation-based inverse modelling emissions estimates of China’s HFC emissions since 2017. Here we use atmospheric observations across China and inverse modelling to reveal distinct emissions trends of nine HFCs from 2011 to 2021 in China. Our top-down emissions estimates reveal an overestimation of HFC emissions post-2017 by an average of 117.2 Tg CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent per year, by China’s national official bottom-up emissions inventories. Also, we find that while eastern China is the largest emitter of HFCs in China (37.4% CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent), non-eastern China contributed to national emissions (62.6%). Lastly, we show that non-Annex I countries (mostly developing countries under the UN climate framework) excluding China accounted for 61.3% of the global HFC emissions growth during 2011–2020, far surpassing contributions from Annex I countries (23.9%) and China (14.8%). These findings highlight the overlooked contributions of non-Annex I countries, excluding China, to global emissions growth.</p>

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Estimation of hydrofluorocarbon emissions from China and other non-Annex I countries

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月28日

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  • Xuekun Fang,
  • Qianna Du,
  • Jens Mühle,
  • Jianxin Hu,
  • Ray F. Weiss,
  • Ronald G. Prinn,
  • Christina M. Harth,
  • Simon O’Doherty,
  • Dickon Young,
  • Mengyue Ma,
  • Xiaoyi Hu,
  • Bowei Li,
  • Siyuan Huang,
  • Bo Yao

摘要

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential are regulated under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. While China began freezing production and consumption of HFCs in 2024, there are discrepancies among previous activity-based bottom-up emissions estimates and lack of observation-based inverse modelling emissions estimates of China’s HFC emissions since 2017. Here we use atmospheric observations across China and inverse modelling to reveal distinct emissions trends of nine HFCs from 2011 to 2021 in China. Our top-down emissions estimates reveal an overestimation of HFC emissions post-2017 by an average of 117.2 Tg CO2-equivalent per year, by China’s national official bottom-up emissions inventories. Also, we find that while eastern China is the largest emitter of HFCs in China (37.4% CO2-equivalent), non-eastern China contributed to national emissions (62.6%). Lastly, we show that non-Annex I countries (mostly developing countries under the UN climate framework) excluding China accounted for 61.3% of the global HFC emissions growth during 2011–2020, far surpassing contributions from Annex I countries (23.9%) and China (14.8%). These findings highlight the overlooked contributions of non-Annex I countries, excluding China, to global emissions growth.