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<p>Reliable quantification of global water-cycle components, such as river flow and land evapotranspiration, remains a major challenge. Here we refine estimates of global water partitioning by combining outputs from multiple Earth system models with river flow observations from 50 large basins, applying the emergent constraint approach. Between 1980 and 2014, global river flow was (39.1 ± 5.4) × 10<sup>3</sup> km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>, with a river flow-to-precipitation ratio of 0.35 ± 0.03, both lower than previous estimates. Land evapotranspiration reached (73.4 ± 6.2) × 10<sup>3</sup> km<sup>3</sup> yr<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>. Under climate change, we project global river flow to rise by 7.8 ± 5.5 mm per year per degree of warming. This estimate, refined through the emergent constraint method, is 9.3% lower than the ensemble mean of Earth system models and reduces inter-model uncertainty by 66%. By integrating river flow observations, we provide more accurate historical estimates and strengthen future projections of global water-cycle components.</p>

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Overestimation of past and future increases in global river flow by Earth system models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月9日

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  • Yongqiang Zhang,
  • Günter Blöschl,
  • Haoshan Wei,
  • Dongdong Kong,
  • Ning Ma,
  • Thorsten Wagener,
  • Jing Tian,
  • Jun Xia,
  • Congcong Li,
  • Longhao Wang,
  • Francis H. S. Chiew,
  • L. Ruby Leung,
  • Xingcai Liu,
  • Hongxing Zheng,
  • Xuanze Zhang,
  • Changming Liu

摘要

Reliable quantification of global water-cycle components, such as river flow and land evapotranspiration, remains a major challenge. Here we refine estimates of global water partitioning by combining outputs from multiple Earth system models with river flow observations from 50 large basins, applying the emergent constraint approach. Between 1980 and 2014, global river flow was (39.1 ± 5.4) × 103 km3 yr−1, with a river flow-to-precipitation ratio of 0.35 ± 0.03, both lower than previous estimates. Land evapotranspiration reached (73.4 ± 6.2) × 103 km3 yr−1. Under climate change, we project global river flow to rise by 7.8 ± 5.5 mm per year per degree of warming. This estimate, refined through the emergent constraint method, is 9.3% lower than the ensemble mean of Earth system models and reduces inter-model uncertainty by 66%. By integrating river flow observations, we provide more accurate historical estimates and strengthen future projections of global water-cycle components.