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<p>Species distributions often fail to match climatically suitable areas, resulting in range disequilibrium. Although recent studies have focused on mismatches arising from lags in biotic responses to climate change (for example, extinction and colonization lags), disturbance processes may also determine whether species occupy otherwise climatically suitable areas, for example, by altering vegetation structure and light regimes. Here we assess climate-change and disturbance-driven disequilibrium for 3,047 vascular plant species across Europe using species distribution models and &gt;1.1 million vegetation plots. Almost all species (99%) show disturbance-driven disequilibrium, revealing mismatches that are strongly structured along disturbance gradients, consistent with alternative vegetation states. We identified disequilibrium associated with recent climate change in 52% of species, with ranges best predicted by climates 10–18 years before sampling and most pronounced among closed-canopy species, probably reflecting under-canopy microclimatic buffering. These findings demonstrate that climate change and disturbance jointly shape widespread disequilibrium in European plant distributions, with disturbance regimes strongly structuring the realization of climatic suitability across contemporary landscapes. Accounting for both disturbance regimes and temporal lags in climate response is therefore essential for improving biodiversity forecasts and guiding conservation strategies.</p>

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Disturbance regimes drive widespread plant range disequilibrium in Europe alongside climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月7日

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  • Sean E. H. Pang,
  • Robert Buitenwerf,
  • Oliver Baines,
  • Svetlana Aćić,
  • Markus Bernhardt-Römermann,
  • Idoia Biurrun,
  • Gianmaria Bonari,
  • Hans Henrik Bruun,
  • Chaeho Byun,
  • Eduardo Chacón-Madrigal,
  • Alessandro Chiarucci,
  • Anh Tuan Dang-Le,
  • Pieter De Frenne,
  • Arildo Dias,
  • Jiri Dolezal,
  • Emmanuel Garbolino,
  • Behlül Güler,
  • Nate Hough-Snee,
  • Jens Kattge,
  • Jonathan Lenoir,
  • Adam R. Martin,
  • Sean T. Michaletz,
  • Vanessa Minden,
  • Akira S. Mori,
  • Ülo Niinemets,
  • Wolfgang Schmidt,
  • Mária Šibíková,
  • Grzegorz Swacha,
  • Koenraad Van Meerbeek,
  • Jens-Christian Svenning

摘要

Species distributions often fail to match climatically suitable areas, resulting in range disequilibrium. Although recent studies have focused on mismatches arising from lags in biotic responses to climate change (for example, extinction and colonization lags), disturbance processes may also determine whether species occupy otherwise climatically suitable areas, for example, by altering vegetation structure and light regimes. Here we assess climate-change and disturbance-driven disequilibrium for 3,047 vascular plant species across Europe using species distribution models and >1.1 million vegetation plots. Almost all species (99%) show disturbance-driven disequilibrium, revealing mismatches that are strongly structured along disturbance gradients, consistent with alternative vegetation states. We identified disequilibrium associated with recent climate change in 52% of species, with ranges best predicted by climates 10–18 years before sampling and most pronounced among closed-canopy species, probably reflecting under-canopy microclimatic buffering. These findings demonstrate that climate change and disturbance jointly shape widespread disequilibrium in European plant distributions, with disturbance regimes strongly structuring the realization of climatic suitability across contemporary landscapes. Accounting for both disturbance regimes and temporal lags in climate response is therefore essential for improving biodiversity forecasts and guiding conservation strategies.