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<p>In March 2024, Brazil reported an unprecedented Oropouche fever outbreak, driven by the emergence of a reassortant lineage of the Oropouche virus (OROV) expanding beyond the Amazon Basin. To investigate the expansion dynamics of OROV, we implemented complementary phylogeographic and ecological niche modelling approaches that aimed to characterize the environmental factors associated with the range expansion and the risk of local circulation, respectively. Our analyses reveal a multiscale expansion process with both short- and long-distance dispersal events and diffusion velocities in line with air traffic-mediated jumps. We identify banana and cocoa cultivation, temperature, the predicted suitability of the primary vector <i>Culicoides paraensis</i> and human population density as key environmental factors associated with OROV range expansion in new areas. We further show that OROV circulated in areas of enhanced ecological suitability immediately preceding its explosive epidemic expansion in the Amazon. Our study provides valuable insights into the dispersal and ecological dynamics of OROV, highlighting the probable role of human mobility in the long-distance colonization of new areas and raising concern over high viral suitability along the Brazilian coast.</p>

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Dynamics and ecology of a multistage expansion of Oropouche virus in Brazil

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月17日

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  • Houriiyah Tegally,
  • Simon Dellicour,
  • Jenicca Poongavanan,
  • Carla Mavian,
  • Graeme Dor,
  • Vagner Fonseca,
  • Massimiliano S. Tagliamonte,
  • Marcel Dunaiski,
  • Monika Moir,
  • Eduan Wilkinson,
  • Carlos Frederico Campelo de Albuquerque,
  • Livia C. V. Frutuoso,
  • Edward C. Holmes,
  • Cheryl Baxter,
  • Richard Lessells,
  • Moritz U. G. Kraemer,
  • José Lourenço,
  • Luiz Carlos Junior Alcantara,
  • Tulio de Oliveira,
  • Marta Giovanetti,
  • Tulio de Oliveira,
  • Luiz C. J. Alcantara,
  • Edward C. Holmes,
  • Abdou Padane,
  • Abdualmoniem O. A. Musa,
  • Adugna Abera,
  • Allan Campbell,
  • Aloysious Ssemaganda,
  • Ambroise Ahouidi,
  • Argentina F. Muianga,
  • Aziza John Samson,
  • Anyebe Bernard Onoja,
  • Badara Cissé,
  • Birhanu D. Alemu,
  • Carlin Foka,
  • Daniel van Zyl,
  • Danilo de Castro Silva,
  • Darren Martin,
  • Desalew M. Moges,
  • Carla Mavian,
  • Eninam Kouma,
  • Fredy B. N. Simo,
  • Gaspary Mwanyika,
  • Girma Godebo,
  • Graeme D’or,
  • Isaac Emmanuel Omara,
  • James Ayei Maror,
  • Jennica Poonagavan,
  • John Juma,
  • John Oludele,
  • Joicymara S. Xavier,
  • José Lourenço,
  • Joseph Fokam,
  • Kenneth K. Maeka,
  • Lavanya Singh,
  • Lucious Chabuka,
  • Maman Issaka,
  • Marije Hofstra,
  • Marta Giovanetti,
  • Martin Faye,
  • Melissa Ahou Koffi,
  • Michael Owusu,
  • Michel N. Dikongo,
  • Mohamed Z. Alimohamed,
  • Molalegne Bitew,
  • Moritz U. G. Kraemer,
  • Nikita Sitharam,
  • Nkurunziza Jerome,
  • Nokuzola Mbhele,
  • Ny Haingo Miantsatian Andry,
  • Oyewale Tomori,
  • Ramuth Magalutcheemee,
  • Ronison Alves Guimaraes,
  • Samuel Oyola,
  • Sara A. Abuelmaali,
  • Souleymane Mboup,
  • Tanya Golubchik,
  • Vagner Fonseca,
  • Wolfgang Preiser,
  • Yajna Ramphal

摘要

In March 2024, Brazil reported an unprecedented Oropouche fever outbreak, driven by the emergence of a reassortant lineage of the Oropouche virus (OROV) expanding beyond the Amazon Basin. To investigate the expansion dynamics of OROV, we implemented complementary phylogeographic and ecological niche modelling approaches that aimed to characterize the environmental factors associated with the range expansion and the risk of local circulation, respectively. Our analyses reveal a multiscale expansion process with both short- and long-distance dispersal events and diffusion velocities in line with air traffic-mediated jumps. We identify banana and cocoa cultivation, temperature, the predicted suitability of the primary vector Culicoides paraensis and human population density as key environmental factors associated with OROV range expansion in new areas. We further show that OROV circulated in areas of enhanced ecological suitability immediately preceding its explosive epidemic expansion in the Amazon. Our study provides valuable insights into the dispersal and ecological dynamics of OROV, highlighting the probable role of human mobility in the long-distance colonization of new areas and raising concern over high viral suitability along the Brazilian coast.