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<p>Climate change is expected to alter the extent and severity of forest pest damage, with substantial economic and ecological consequences, but predicting future pest impacts is challenging because of complex feedbacks among climate, pests and host trees. Here we use 20 years of data from the conterminous USA to assess how bioclimatic and biotic factors have influenced forest damage by 30 high-impact pest species and to identify ecological signals in those relationships. We found consistency in pest damage responses to maximum temperature in the warmest month, including recent average conditions and shifts from a historical baseline. Mean damage from focal pest species tends to be higher in regions with moderate maximum temperatures and in regions with faster rates of warming. In certain cases, the direction and magnitude of relationships between climate and forest damage vary by pest guild, native status and region of occurrence. Our findings provide empirical support for expectations of climate-induced stress to host trees and temperature-boosted pest performance, leading to increased pest damage in future forests.</p>

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Warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns may exacerbate pest damage in North American forests

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月17日

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  • Hannah L. Clipp,
  • Kevin M. Potter,
  • Matthew P. Peters,
  • Anantha M. Prasad,
  • Stephen N. Matthews,
  • Andrew V. Gougherty

摘要

Climate change is expected to alter the extent and severity of forest pest damage, with substantial economic and ecological consequences, but predicting future pest impacts is challenging because of complex feedbacks among climate, pests and host trees. Here we use 20 years of data from the conterminous USA to assess how bioclimatic and biotic factors have influenced forest damage by 30 high-impact pest species and to identify ecological signals in those relationships. We found consistency in pest damage responses to maximum temperature in the warmest month, including recent average conditions and shifts from a historical baseline. Mean damage from focal pest species tends to be higher in regions with moderate maximum temperatures and in regions with faster rates of warming. In certain cases, the direction and magnitude of relationships between climate and forest damage vary by pest guild, native status and region of occurrence. Our findings provide empirical support for expectations of climate-induced stress to host trees and temperature-boosted pest performance, leading to increased pest damage in future forests.