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<p>Tropical climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Niño/Niña variability, has long governed global interannual climate fluctuations. Understanding how their influence may change in the next few decades is critically important for climate prediction and adaptation. Here we show that tropical interannual sea surface temperature variability could start to weaken in the next few decades, even if greenhouse warming intensifies.</p>

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Declining tropical sea surface temperature variability under post-2050s greenhouse warming

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月25日

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  • Guojian Wang,
  • Agus Santoso

摘要

Tropical climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Niño/Niña variability, has long governed global interannual climate fluctuations. Understanding how their influence may change in the next few decades is critically important for climate prediction and adaptation. Here we show that tropical interannual sea surface temperature variability could start to weaken in the next few decades, even if greenhouse warming intensifies.