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<p>A new wave of steel capacity additions in emerging economies threatens to lock in coal-based production for decades. By combining detailed steel production modelling with plant-level data in an integrated assessment model, we estimate that existing and planned coal-based steel plants could commit the world to nearly 60 GtCO<sub>2</sub>. If current policy and investment trends continue beyond current plans, committed emissions reach 114 GtCO<sub>2</sub>, consuming 20% of the remaining carbon budget for limiting peak warming to 1.7 °C. We show that 60% of this lock-in risk can be avoided at moderate average abatement costs of US$100–150 tCO<sub>2</sub><sup>−1</sup>. In India alone, 22 GtCO<sub>2</sub> of future emissions could be avoided by leveraging climate finance to redirect US$50 billion this decade towards hydrogen-ready direct reduction steel plants. Near-term investment decisions on new steelmaking capacity represent a critical opportunity to avert the carbon lock-in and align the sector with climate targets.</p>

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Averting the steel carbon lock-in through strategic green investments

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月21日

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  • Clara Bachorz,
  • Jakob Dürrwächter,
  • Chen Chris Gong,
  • Adrian Odenweller,
  • Michaja Pehl,
  • Felix Schreyer,
  • Philipp C. Verpoort,
  • Gunnar Luderer,
  • Falko Ueckerdt

摘要

A new wave of steel capacity additions in emerging economies threatens to lock in coal-based production for decades. By combining detailed steel production modelling with plant-level data in an integrated assessment model, we estimate that existing and planned coal-based steel plants could commit the world to nearly 60 GtCO2. If current policy and investment trends continue beyond current plans, committed emissions reach 114 GtCO2, consuming 20% of the remaining carbon budget for limiting peak warming to 1.7 °C. We show that 60% of this lock-in risk can be avoided at moderate average abatement costs of US$100–150 tCO2−1. In India alone, 22 GtCO2 of future emissions could be avoided by leveraging climate finance to redirect US$50 billion this decade towards hydrogen-ready direct reduction steel plants. Near-term investment decisions on new steelmaking capacity represent a critical opportunity to avert the carbon lock-in and align the sector with climate targets.