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<p>Arctic rivers mobilize vast stocks of permafrost carbon as they migrate across floodplains. However, there is no consensus about whether Arctic rivers are responding to regional warming by speeding up or slowing down. Here we reconstruct migration rates over the period 1972–2020 for Arctic and sub-Arctic rivers spanning approximately 1,500 km of distance and a variety of channel sizes and floodplain environments. We find that rivers in warmer, discontinuous permafrost settings experienced a systematic acceleration over the past 50 years, whereas rivers in colder, continuous permafrost regions experienced a systematic slowdown. We identify two competing mechanisms responsible for this bifurcating behaviour: thaw of permafrost floodplains has driven faster migration, whereas a decline in the intensity of river-ice breakup has slowed migration. Using a mechanistic model, we find that the relative balance of these two controls is well described by air temperature, revealing a simple organizing framework for how Arctic rivers respond to warming.</p>

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Resolving the changing pace of Arctic rivers

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月24日

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  • Emily C. Geyman,
  • Michael P. Lamb

摘要

Arctic rivers mobilize vast stocks of permafrost carbon as they migrate across floodplains. However, there is no consensus about whether Arctic rivers are responding to regional warming by speeding up or slowing down. Here we reconstruct migration rates over the period 1972–2020 for Arctic and sub-Arctic rivers spanning approximately 1,500 km of distance and a variety of channel sizes and floodplain environments. We find that rivers in warmer, discontinuous permafrost settings experienced a systematic acceleration over the past 50 years, whereas rivers in colder, continuous permafrost regions experienced a systematic slowdown. We identify two competing mechanisms responsible for this bifurcating behaviour: thaw of permafrost floodplains has driven faster migration, whereas a decline in the intensity of river-ice breakup has slowed migration. Using a mechanistic model, we find that the relative balance of these two controls is well described by air temperature, revealing a simple organizing framework for how Arctic rivers respond to warming.