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<p>In an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across foreign policy, human security, trade and finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts emerging from low-income countries. High-income countries can trigger cascading impacts through, for example, reduced crop exports. Our findings highlight the importance of policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities rather than isolated risks. Thus, agricultural intensification without integrated water management may exacerbate scarcity, whereas safeguarding livelihoods alleviates cascading risks related to forced migration, violent conflict and instability.</p>

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Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月16日

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  • Cornelia Auer,
  • Christopher P. O. Reyer,
  • Weronika Adamczak,
  • Chris Aylett,
  • Magnus Benzie,
  • Jan Philipp Berndt,
  • David N. Bresch,
  • Francesco Bosello,
  • Giacomo Bressan,
  • Timothy R. Carter,
  • Simon Croft,
  • Elisa Delpiazzo,
  • Sophie Desmidt,
  • Adrien Detges,
  • Anja Duranovic,
  • Stefan Fronzek,
  • Katy Harris,
  • Mikael Hildén,
  • Lukasz Jarzabek,
  • Ramon Key,
  • Richard King,
  • Paula Kivimaa,
  • Richard J. T. Klein,
  • Hanne Knaepen,
  • Glada Lahn,
  • Piotr Magnuszewski,
  • Mikael Mikaelsson,
  • Irene Monasterolo,
  • Claire Mosoni,
  • Ilona M. Otto,
  • Ramiro Parrado,
  • Samuli Pitzen,
  • Benjamin Pohl,
  • Oriol Puig,
  • Hetty Saes-Heibel,
  • Emilie Stokeld,
  • Sara Talebian,
  • Fabien Tondel,
  • Ruth Townend,
  • Chris West,
  • Eckart Woertz,
  • Nico Wunderling

摘要

In an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across foreign policy, human security, trade and finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts emerging from low-income countries. High-income countries can trigger cascading impacts through, for example, reduced crop exports. Our findings highlight the importance of policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities rather than isolated risks. Thus, agricultural intensification without integrated water management may exacerbate scarcity, whereas safeguarding livelihoods alleviates cascading risks related to forced migration, violent conflict and instability.