Scholarlink

<p>Climate change has large economic costs for society. An important effect is the disruption of natural resource supply by climate-mediated disturbances such as wildfires, pest outbreaks and storms. Here we show that disturbance-induced losses for Europe’s timber-based forestry could increase from the current €115 billion to €247 billion under severe climate change. This would diminish the timber value of Europe’s forests by up to 42% and reduce the current gross value added of the forestry sector by up to 15%. Central Europe emerges as a continental hotspot of disturbance costs, with projected future costs of up to €19,885 per hectare. Simultaneous climate-related increases in forest productivity could offset future economic losses from disturbances in Northern and Central Europe but not in Southern Europe. We find high disturbance-related cost of unmitigated warming, highlighting that climate change adaptation in forestry is not only an ecological but also an economic imperative.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Rising cost of disturbances for forestry in Europe under climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月18日

查看全文
  • Johannes S. Mohr,
  • Félix Bastit,
  • Marc Grünig,
  • Thomas Knoke,
  • Werner Rammer,
  • Cornelius Senf,
  • Dominik Thom,
  • Rupert Seidl

摘要

Climate change has large economic costs for society. An important effect is the disruption of natural resource supply by climate-mediated disturbances such as wildfires, pest outbreaks and storms. Here we show that disturbance-induced losses for Europe’s timber-based forestry could increase from the current €115 billion to €247 billion under severe climate change. This would diminish the timber value of Europe’s forests by up to 42% and reduce the current gross value added of the forestry sector by up to 15%. Central Europe emerges as a continental hotspot of disturbance costs, with projected future costs of up to €19,885 per hectare. Simultaneous climate-related increases in forest productivity could offset future economic losses from disturbances in Northern and Central Europe but not in Southern Europe. We find high disturbance-related cost of unmitigated warming, highlighting that climate change adaptation in forestry is not only an ecological but also an economic imperative.