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<p>The size and attribution of the regional net carbon flux from land-use change (LUC) activities (<i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub>) are often highly debated, especially in regions such as China, which has experienced decades-long extensive reforestation activities. Here, using a LUC dataset incorporating remote-sensing and national forest inventory data with two modelling approaches, we show that <i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub> in China shifted from a carbon source to a sink in the 1990s, contributing to a net cumulative CO<sub>2</sub> removal of 2.0 Pg C during 1981–2020. From 2001 to 2020, the average <i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub> was −0.14 Pg C yr<sup>−1</sup>, accounting for over one-third of the national land carbon sinks. Forest-related LUC activities contributed greatly to national carbon fluxes, while non-forest-related activities played a dominant role in certain areas. Our findings suggest that the carbon sinks from LUC activities in China may be largely underestimated in global assessments, underscoring the need to develop region-specific modelling for evaluation and potential regulation.</p>

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China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月1日

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  • Yakun Zhu,
  • Xiaosheng Xia,
  • Josep G. Canadell,
  • Shilong Piao,
  • Xinqing Lu,
  • Umakant Mishra,
  • Xuhui Wang,
  • Wenping Yuan,
  • Zhangcai Qin

摘要

The size and attribution of the regional net carbon flux from land-use change (LUC) activities (ELUC) are often highly debated, especially in regions such as China, which has experienced decades-long extensive reforestation activities. Here, using a LUC dataset incorporating remote-sensing and national forest inventory data with two modelling approaches, we show that ELUC in China shifted from a carbon source to a sink in the 1990s, contributing to a net cumulative CO2 removal of 2.0 Pg C during 1981–2020. From 2001 to 2020, the average ELUC was −0.14 Pg C yr−1, accounting for over one-third of the national land carbon sinks. Forest-related LUC activities contributed greatly to national carbon fluxes, while non-forest-related activities played a dominant role in certain areas. Our findings suggest that the carbon sinks from LUC activities in China may be largely underestimated in global assessments, underscoring the need to develop region-specific modelling for evaluation and potential regulation.