Intensified Atlantic multidecadal variability in a warming climate
摘要
The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is a basin-scale mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic, exerting a global impact, including contribution to the multidecadal Sahel drought and subsequent recovery and the post-1998 global warming hiatus. How greenhouse warming affects AMV remains unclear. Here, using models with multicentury-long outputs of future climate, we find an intensified AMV under greenhouse warming. Surface warming and freshwater input from sea-ice melt increase surface buoyancy, leading to a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Reduced vertical mixing associated with suppressed oceanic deep convection results in a thinned mixed layer and its variability, favouring stronger AMV SST variability. Further, a weakened AMOC and the associated northward heat transport prolong the lifespan of the AMV, providing a long time for the AMV to grow. Thus, multidecadal global surface fluctuations and the associated climate extremes are likely to be more intense.