Boreal–Arctic wetland methane emissions modulated by warming and vegetation activity

Wetland methane (CH₄) emissions over the Boreal–Arctic region are vulnerable to climate change and linked to climate feedbacks, yet understanding of their long-term dynamics remains uncertain. Here, we upscaled and analysed two decades (2002–2021) of Boreal–Arctic wetland CH₄ emissions, representing an unprecedented compilation of eddy covariance and chamber observations. We found a robust increasing trend of CH₄ emissions (+8.9%) with strong inter-annual variability. The majority of emission increases occurred in early summer (June and July) and were mainly driven by warming (52.3%) and ecosystem productivity (40.7%). Moreover, a 2 °C temperature anomaly in 2016 led to the highest recorded annual CH₄ emissions (22.3 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹) over this region, driven primarily by high emissions over Western Siberian lowlands. However, current-generation models from the Global Carbon Project failed to capture the emission magnitude and trend, and may bias the estimates in future wetland CH₄ emission driven by amplified Boreal–Arctic warming and greening.