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<p>Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a chronic lung condition characterized by airflow obstruction. Current diagnostic methods primarily rely on identifying prominent features in spirometry (Volume-Flow time series) to detect COPD, but they are not adept at predicting future COPD risk based on subtle data patterns. In this study, we introduce a novel deep learning-based approach, DeepSpiro, aimed at the early prediction of future COPD risk. DeepSpiro consists of four key components: SpiroSmoother for stabilizing the Volume-Flow curve, SpiroEncoder for capturing volume variability-pattern through key patches of varying lengths, SpiroExplainer for integrating heterogeneous data and explaining predictions through volume attention, and SpiroPredictor for predicting the disease risk of undiagnosed high-risk patients based on key patch concavity, with prediction horizons of 1–5 years, or even longer. Evaluated on the UK Biobank dataset, DeepSpiro achieved an AUC of 0.8328 for COPD detection and demonstrated strong predictive performance for future COPD risk (<i>p</i>-value &lt; 0.001). In summary, DeepSpiro can effectively predict the long-term progression of COPD disease.</p>

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Deep learning for detecting and early predicting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from spirogram time series

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月15日

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  • Shuhao Mei,
  • Xin Li,
  • Yuxi Zhou,
  • Jiahao Xu,
  • Yong Zhang,
  • Yuxuan Wan,
  • Shan Cao,
  • Qinghao Zhao,
  • Shijia Geng,
  • Junqing Xie,
  • Shengyong Chen,
  • Shenda Hong

摘要

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a chronic lung condition characterized by airflow obstruction. Current diagnostic methods primarily rely on identifying prominent features in spirometry (Volume-Flow time series) to detect COPD, but they are not adept at predicting future COPD risk based on subtle data patterns. In this study, we introduce a novel deep learning-based approach, DeepSpiro, aimed at the early prediction of future COPD risk. DeepSpiro consists of four key components: SpiroSmoother for stabilizing the Volume-Flow curve, SpiroEncoder for capturing volume variability-pattern through key patches of varying lengths, SpiroExplainer for integrating heterogeneous data and explaining predictions through volume attention, and SpiroPredictor for predicting the disease risk of undiagnosed high-risk patients based on key patch concavity, with prediction horizons of 1–5 years, or even longer. Evaluated on the UK Biobank dataset, DeepSpiro achieved an AUC of 0.8328 for COPD detection and demonstrated strong predictive performance for future COPD risk (p-value < 0.001). In summary, DeepSpiro can effectively predict the long-term progression of COPD disease.