<p>The surface code represents a promising candidate for fault-tolerant quantum computation due to its high error threshold and experimental accessibility with nearest-neighbor interactions. However, current exact surface code threshold analyses are based on the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) errors. Though there are numerical studies for the threshold with correlated error, they are only the lower bound rather than the exact value, which offers potential for higher error thresholds. Here, we establish an error-edge map, which allows for the mapping of quantum error correction to a square-octagonal random bond Ising model. We then present the maximum-likelihood threshold under a realistic noise model that combines independent single-qubit errors with correlated errors between nearest-neighbor data qubits. Our method is applicable for any ratio of nearest-neighbor correlated errors to i.i.d. errors. We present analytical constraints for the error correction threshold of surface codes, and by applying these constraints, we numerically obtain the error threshold higher than the existing values. Our error threshold is both an upper bound and achievable.</p>