Scholarlink

<p>Grid expansion remains a key strategy for increasing electricity access across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, whether utilities can generate sufficient revenue under current tariffs to support capital investment is unclear. We compile a comprehensive dataset of residential electricity tariffs for 48 SSA countries and develop a standardized model to estimate electricity bills using the Multi-Tier Framework (MTF). Affordability is assessed across income percentiles using simulated income distributions. Under current tariffs, around 608 million people (50%) may not afford Tier 4 electricity, rising to 1.05 billion (85%) for Tier 5 under a 10% energy-poverty threshold. Sensitivity analyses using 5% and 15% thresholds confirm the robustness of these findings. Even where higher-tier electricity is affordable, usage remains low. Combining affordability estimates with utility financial performance, we identify where grid expansion could be viable and where affordability constraints and utility deficits can create electrification traps. In many countries, off-grid solutions may be the only feasible pathway to achieving SDG7.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Assessing grid affordability for universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月9日

查看全文
  • Yidan Kou,
  • Stephanie Hirmer,
  • Pu Yang,
  • Alycia Leonard,
  • Florian Egli

摘要

Grid expansion remains a key strategy for increasing electricity access across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, whether utilities can generate sufficient revenue under current tariffs to support capital investment is unclear. We compile a comprehensive dataset of residential electricity tariffs for 48 SSA countries and develop a standardized model to estimate electricity bills using the Multi-Tier Framework (MTF). Affordability is assessed across income percentiles using simulated income distributions. Under current tariffs, around 608 million people (50%) may not afford Tier 4 electricity, rising to 1.05 billion (85%) for Tier 5 under a 10% energy-poverty threshold. Sensitivity analyses using 5% and 15% thresholds confirm the robustness of these findings. Even where higher-tier electricity is affordable, usage remains low. Combining affordability estimates with utility financial performance, we identify where grid expansion could be viable and where affordability constraints and utility deficits can create electrification traps. In many countries, off-grid solutions may be the only feasible pathway to achieving SDG7.