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<p>Escalating emissions of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLSs), which remain unregulated under the Montreal Protocol, could delay the recovery of the global ozone layer. In this study, we developed a comprehensive sectoral and regional bottom-up emission inventory of the two most abundant Cl-VSLSs, dichloromethane (CH<sub>2</sub>Cl<sub>2</sub>) and chloroform (CHCl<sub>3</sub>), from 2010 to 2023 in China, alongside projections to 2035. Our best estimates indicate an upward trend in historical emissions for both substances, with CH<sub>2</sub>Cl<sub>2</sub> emissions more than doubling since 2010, and both species are projected to grow substantially by 2035 under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario. The implementation of best practicable technologies is projected to mitigate cumulative CH<sub>2</sub>Cl<sub>2</sub> and CHCl<sub>3</sub> emissions by approximately 50% and 7%, respectively, over 2024–2035. Crucially, projections indicate that the CFC-11 equivalent emissions of CH<sub>2</sub>Cl<sub>2</sub> in China would exceed the country’s aggregate emissions of all hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) annually from 2024 onwards under the BAU scenario. This study underscores the need for integrated domestic regulations and international negotiations to address the increasing threat from Cl-VSLSs to stratospheric ozone recovery.</p>

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Chlorinated VSLSs Surpass HCFCs in CFC-11-Equivalent Emissions for Ozone Layer Depletion in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月1日

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  • Xu Zhang,
  • Minde An,
  • Ziwei Chen,
  • Pengnan Jiang,
  • Fuli Bai,
  • Xingchen Zhao,
  • Weiguang Xu,
  • Jianxin Hu

摘要

Escalating emissions of chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLSs), which remain unregulated under the Montreal Protocol, could delay the recovery of the global ozone layer. In this study, we developed a comprehensive sectoral and regional bottom-up emission inventory of the two most abundant Cl-VSLSs, dichloromethane (CH2Cl2) and chloroform (CHCl3), from 2010 to 2023 in China, alongside projections to 2035. Our best estimates indicate an upward trend in historical emissions for both substances, with CH2Cl2 emissions more than doubling since 2010, and both species are projected to grow substantially by 2035 under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario. The implementation of best practicable technologies is projected to mitigate cumulative CH2Cl2 and CHCl3 emissions by approximately 50% and 7%, respectively, over 2024–2035. Crucially, projections indicate that the CFC-11 equivalent emissions of CH2Cl2 in China would exceed the country’s aggregate emissions of all hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) annually from 2024 onwards under the BAU scenario. This study underscores the need for integrated domestic regulations and international negotiations to address the increasing threat from Cl-VSLSs to stratospheric ozone recovery.