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<p>Variations in the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> seasonal cycle across the Northern Hemisphere have historically been dominated by terrestrial ecosystems, making ground-based observations a reliable proxy for terrestrial carbon dynamics. However, whether this dominance&#xa0;will persist in the future remains uncertain. Here we combine atmospheric transport modeling with factorial simulations to assess and attribute future changes in the CO<sub>2</sub> seasonal cycle through 2100. We show that the dominant drivers of these changes shift fundamentally across scenarios. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), strengthening land sinks dominate and amplify CO<sub>2</sub> seasonal variability, preserving ground-based observations as a reliable terrestrial proxy. In contrast, under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), CO<sub>2</sub> seasonal amplitude&#xa0;declines widely, driven&#xa0;primarily by reduced fossil fuel emissions and their dampened seasonality. Consequently, established&#xa0;ground-based CO<sub>2</sub> observations may no longer reliably track terrestrial carbon dynamics under mitigation pathways, underscoring the need for new approaches for monitoring&#xa0;and climate policy verification.</p>

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Fossil fuel emissions dominate Northern Hemisphere CO2 seasonal cycle trends under mitigation scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月1日

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  • Zhe Jin,
  • Yue He,
  • Yilong Wang,
  • Kai Wang,
  • Hao Xu,
  • Yanchen Gui,
  • Xiangjun Tian,
  • Thomas Gasser,
  • Shilong Piao

摘要

Variations in the atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle across the Northern Hemisphere have historically been dominated by terrestrial ecosystems, making ground-based observations a reliable proxy for terrestrial carbon dynamics. However, whether this dominance will persist in the future remains uncertain. Here we combine atmospheric transport modeling with factorial simulations to assess and attribute future changes in the CO2 seasonal cycle through 2100. We show that the dominant drivers of these changes shift fundamentally across scenarios. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), strengthening land sinks dominate and amplify CO2 seasonal variability, preserving ground-based observations as a reliable terrestrial proxy. In contrast, under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), CO2 seasonal amplitude declines widely, driven primarily by reduced fossil fuel emissions and their dampened seasonality. Consequently, established ground-based CO2 observations may no longer reliably track terrestrial carbon dynamics under mitigation pathways, underscoring the need for new approaches for monitoring and climate policy verification.