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<p>Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting global temperature increases require rapid, large-scale technological transitions. Historical trends in technology adoption can inform how quickly such transitions may occur. We analyse the effects of technology and country characteristics on diffusion speed using an expanded Historical Adoption of Technologies (HATCH) dataset, comprising 5990 national-level time series across 130 technologies and 228 countries. Compared to previous studies, this dataset enables a broader and more integrated assessment of diffusion drivers. We observe substantial variation in growth rates: newer, simpler, more standardised, smaller, less materially intensive, and shorter-lived technologies diffuse more rapidly. These findings suggest that smaller-scale technologies may be adopted faster than complex, large-scale technologies, which may require greater support and longer timeframes for widespread adoption.</p>

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Drivers of technology diffusion speed in countries

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月16日

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  • Jenna H. Greene,
  • Matthew J. Gidden,
  • Elina Brutschin,
  • Gregory F. Nemet

摘要

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting global temperature increases require rapid, large-scale technological transitions. Historical trends in technology adoption can inform how quickly such transitions may occur. We analyse the effects of technology and country characteristics on diffusion speed using an expanded Historical Adoption of Technologies (HATCH) dataset, comprising 5990 national-level time series across 130 technologies and 228 countries. Compared to previous studies, this dataset enables a broader and more integrated assessment of diffusion drivers. We observe substantial variation in growth rates: newer, simpler, more standardised, smaller, less materially intensive, and shorter-lived technologies diffuse more rapidly. These findings suggest that smaller-scale technologies may be adopted faster than complex, large-scale technologies, which may require greater support and longer timeframes for widespread adoption.