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<p>High-impact weather events (HIWs) threaten power system reliability by inducing prolonged, concurrent deficits in wind and solar generation. Here, we present an integrated assessment of China’s future renewable-dominated power system under climate change, leveraging 5-kilometer resolution spatial and hourly temporal meteorological data, spatially explicit electricity demand projections, and a climate-informed coordinated optimization of renewable generation and cross-regional transmission. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2040, we find that HIWs can trigger generation deficits persisting up to 24 days annually, reducing wind and solar output by as much as 41.2% in inland provinces and 22.7% across northern-central grids, respectively. Inner Mongolia and the Northwest China Grid emerge as key export hubs, with a combined cross-regional transmission potential of 605 gigawatts to alleviate regional imbalances. These results underscore the amplifying role of HIWs in disrupting renewable supply chains and highlight the necessity of spatially coordinated, climate-resilient infrastructure planning to secure a low-carbon energy future.</p>

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High-impact weather effects on wind and solar power systems under future climate scenarios in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月26日

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  • Jingbo Sun,
  • Yuan He,
  • Yan Li,
  • Yang Wang,
  • Qingchen Chao,
  • Deliang Chen,
  • Xiaofan Yang

摘要

High-impact weather events (HIWs) threaten power system reliability by inducing prolonged, concurrent deficits in wind and solar generation. Here, we present an integrated assessment of China’s future renewable-dominated power system under climate change, leveraging 5-kilometer resolution spatial and hourly temporal meteorological data, spatially explicit electricity demand projections, and a climate-informed coordinated optimization of renewable generation and cross-regional transmission. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2040, we find that HIWs can trigger generation deficits persisting up to 24 days annually, reducing wind and solar output by as much as 41.2% in inland provinces and 22.7% across northern-central grids, respectively. Inner Mongolia and the Northwest China Grid emerge as key export hubs, with a combined cross-regional transmission potential of 605 gigawatts to alleviate regional imbalances. These results underscore the amplifying role of HIWs in disrupting renewable supply chains and highlight the necessity of spatially coordinated, climate-resilient infrastructure planning to secure a low-carbon energy future.