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<p>Extreme heat is intensifying under climate change, yet evidence on regional and temporal variation in heat-related morbidity remains limited. Here we analyzed over 100 million emergency department (ED) visits across five countries and territories from 2000 to 2019 using a time-stratified case-crossover design to quantify associations between summer temperature and acute healthcare demand. Here we show that higher summer temperatures are associated with increased risks of ED visits across all study regions. At the 95<sup>th</sup> percentile of local daily maximum temperature, cumulative excess odds ratios are highest in Australia (42.1%, 95% confidence interval 38.1-46.2) and Taiwan (25.7%, 16.7-35.3), followed by Brazil (18.0%, 17.6-18.4), New Zealand (16.6%, 13.5-19.7), and Canada (6.1%, 4.1–8.1). Over time, heat-related risks declined in Australia but increased in Brazil. These findings reveal substantial regional and temporal heterogeneity in vulnerability and underscore the need for locally tailored heat-health adaptation strategies under a warming climate.</p>

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Regional variations in emergency care vulnerability to summer heat

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月25日

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  • Wenhua Yu,
  • Rongbin Xu,
  • Wenzhong Huang,
  • Zhengyu Yang,
  • Tingting Ye,
  • Pei Yu,
  • Yiwen Zhang,
  • Yao Wu,
  • Bo Wen,
  • Yanming Liu,
  • Yuxi Zhang,
  • Ying Zhang,
  • Peng Bi,
  • Donna Green,
  • Bin Jalaludin,
  • Wenbiao Hu,
  • Simon Hales,
  • Eric Lavigne,
  • Paulo Saldiva,
  • Micheline Coelho,
  • Yue Leon Guo,
  • Dung Phung,
  • Anthony Capon,
  • Julie Arblaster,
  • Shuang Zhou,
  • Zhihu Xu,
  • Zhaoyuan Li,
  • Shanshan Li,
  • Yuming Guo

摘要

Extreme heat is intensifying under climate change, yet evidence on regional and temporal variation in heat-related morbidity remains limited. Here we analyzed over 100 million emergency department (ED) visits across five countries and territories from 2000 to 2019 using a time-stratified case-crossover design to quantify associations between summer temperature and acute healthcare demand. Here we show that higher summer temperatures are associated with increased risks of ED visits across all study regions. At the 95th percentile of local daily maximum temperature, cumulative excess odds ratios are highest in Australia (42.1%, 95% confidence interval 38.1-46.2) and Taiwan (25.7%, 16.7-35.3), followed by Brazil (18.0%, 17.6-18.4), New Zealand (16.6%, 13.5-19.7), and Canada (6.1%, 4.1–8.1). Over time, heat-related risks declined in Australia but increased in Brazil. These findings reveal substantial regional and temporal heterogeneity in vulnerability and underscore the need for locally tailored heat-health adaptation strategies under a warming climate.