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<p>Extreme rainfall is increasing under climate warming, but its future patterns across Africa remain highly uncertain. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, we assess projected changes in annual maximum one-day precipitation (Rx1day) and rare precipitation extremes across African subregions under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Our results show robust intensification of Rx1day by the late twenty-first century, with increases of ~5–10 mm day⁻¹ (15–23 mm day⁻¹) under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5), largest in convectively dominated equatorial regions such as West, Central, and Northeast Africa. Rare events that historically occurred once every 50 (100) years are projected to recur every ~5–10 ( ~ 6–14) years, with recurrence intervals as short as 2–3 years in equatorial regions under SSP5-8.5. This intensification is driven primarily by thermodynamic moistening associated with radiation-induced warming, while diabatic heating–driven dynamic changes modulate regional responses and account for much of the intermodel spread. A hierarchical emergent-constraint framework based on observed historical global mean surface temperature trends moderates mean Rx1day intensification by ~11–35% without altering its sign. Constrained and unconstrained projections indicate substantial continent-wide increases in population and gross domestic product exposure.</p>

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Robust intensification of projected regional precipitation extremes over Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月16日

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  • Akintomide A. Akinsanola,
  • Thierry N. Taguela,
  • Vishal Bobde

摘要

Extreme rainfall is increasing under climate warming, but its future patterns across Africa remain highly uncertain. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, we assess projected changes in annual maximum one-day precipitation (Rx1day) and rare precipitation extremes across African subregions under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Our results show robust intensification of Rx1day by the late twenty-first century, with increases of ~5–10 mm day⁻¹ (15–23 mm day⁻¹) under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5), largest in convectively dominated equatorial regions such as West, Central, and Northeast Africa. Rare events that historically occurred once every 50 (100) years are projected to recur every ~5–10 ( ~ 6–14) years, with recurrence intervals as short as 2–3 years in equatorial regions under SSP5-8.5. This intensification is driven primarily by thermodynamic moistening associated with radiation-induced warming, while diabatic heating–driven dynamic changes modulate regional responses and account for much of the intermodel spread. A hierarchical emergent-constraint framework based on observed historical global mean surface temperature trends moderates mean Rx1day intensification by ~11–35% without altering its sign. Constrained and unconstrained projections indicate substantial continent-wide increases in population and gross domestic product exposure.