Incorporating methane isotopologues alters tropical and subtropical methane emission estimates
摘要
Annual increases in atmospheric methane have reached record highs over the past five years, yet the underlying processes and regional sources remain uncertain. Here we quantify the average 2019-2021 global methane budget using Bayesian 4D-Var inversions that assimilate satellite methane retrievals and in-situ δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 measurements. The methane-isotopic inversion yields total emissions of 623 [585–643] Tg/y, slightly higher than the methane-only inversion. Incorporating isotopic constraints leads to a redistribution of emissions in tropical and subtropical regions. Compared with the methane-only inversion, the methane-isotopic inversion indicates that emission estimates increase by 26 [−3–27] Tg/y in East Asia (primarily China), 7 [−1–8] Tg/y in South Asia (primarily India), and 5 [−3–10] Tg/y in central Africa, while decreasing by 5 [−6–7] Tg/y in Amazon Basin and 12 [−14–20] Tg/y elsewhere. This points to a stronger anthropogenic contribution to the post-2019 methane budget, including higher fossil emissions in China and slightly less wetland emissions in the Amazon Basin. The methane-isotopic inversion also alters inferred emission seasonality, showing less seasonality in China compared with the methane-only inversion, weaker coal-mine phase-out signals, and a delayed summer peak in Southeast Asia, pointing to sources missing from current inventories.