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<p>The formation and evolution of the Solar System’s two major comet reservoirs, the Oort Cloud and the Scattered Disk, remain poorly constrained. Observations of comet flux imply a population ratio between these reservoirs that exceeds predictions from models of giant planet instability by more than two orders of magnitude. A major source of uncertainty lies in determining comet sizes, as the nucleus is often obscured by the surrounding coma. Here we derive independent nucleus sizes for 28 comets by activity modeling with artificial intelligence to infer sizes directly from variations in water emission. We find that long-period comets possess significantly larger nuclei than short-period comets with comparable absolute brightness. Our results indicate that the Oort Cloud is nearly three orders of magnitude more populated than the Scattered Disk, implying that processes such as stellar flybys could have played an important role in shaping the outer Solar System.</p>

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Deep learning-enabled size estimation of comets indicates a more dynamic early solar system

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月6日

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  • Shunjing Zhao,
  • Xian Shi,
  • Hanlun Lei,
  • Man-To Hui,
  • Jianchun Shi

摘要

The formation and evolution of the Solar System’s two major comet reservoirs, the Oort Cloud and the Scattered Disk, remain poorly constrained. Observations of comet flux imply a population ratio between these reservoirs that exceeds predictions from models of giant planet instability by more than two orders of magnitude. A major source of uncertainty lies in determining comet sizes, as the nucleus is often obscured by the surrounding coma. Here we derive independent nucleus sizes for 28 comets by activity modeling with artificial intelligence to infer sizes directly from variations in water emission. We find that long-period comets possess significantly larger nuclei than short-period comets with comparable absolute brightness. Our results indicate that the Oort Cloud is nearly three orders of magnitude more populated than the Scattered Disk, implying that processes such as stellar flybys could have played an important role in shaping the outer Solar System.