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<p>Anticipating the environmental and societal consequences of climate-driven permafrost thaw requires knowledge of terrain and subsurface conditions, which prove challenging to obtain at spatial scales necessary for rigorous prediction and decision-making. Analysis of a systematic inventory of permafrost landforms across northwestern Canada demonstrates that landform assemblages co-develop with ecosystems, distinguishing fundamental permafrost properties across a continental-scale ecoclimatic gradient (10<sup>6&#xa0;</sup>km<sup>2</sup>) and among finer-scale ecological regions (10<sup>3</sup> to 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>). This approach quantifies variation in geological and climatic legacies and delineates the diverse consequences of thaw. Here we show that permafrost landsystems, defined by characteristic landform assemblages, express spatial variation in soil, ground ice, geochemical, and carbon characteristics, enabling these intrinsic conditions to be inferred at regional scales through integrated mapping and analyses. Permafrost landsystems also provide a conceptual framework to inform predictions of thaw-driven change, and to formulate, share, and apply permafrost knowledge across scales, disciplines, and ways of knowing.</p>

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Permafrost landsystems define regional variability in climate change effects on northern environments

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月3日

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  • Steven V. Kokelj,
  • Stephen A. Wolfe,
  • Niels Weiss,
  • Duane Froese,
  • Jennifer L. Baltzer,
  • Trevor C. Lantz,
  • H. Brendan O’Neill,
  • Peter D. Morse,
  • Anastasia Sniderhan,
  • Niek J. Speetjens,
  • Jurjen Van der Sluijs,
  • Alejandro Alvarez,
  • Suzanne E. Tank,
  • Stephan Gruber

摘要

Anticipating the environmental and societal consequences of climate-driven permafrost thaw requires knowledge of terrain and subsurface conditions, which prove challenging to obtain at spatial scales necessary for rigorous prediction and decision-making. Analysis of a systematic inventory of permafrost landforms across northwestern Canada demonstrates that landform assemblages co-develop with ecosystems, distinguishing fundamental permafrost properties across a continental-scale ecoclimatic gradient (106 km2) and among finer-scale ecological regions (103 to 104 km2). This approach quantifies variation in geological and climatic legacies and delineates the diverse consequences of thaw. Here we show that permafrost landsystems, defined by characteristic landform assemblages, express spatial variation in soil, ground ice, geochemical, and carbon characteristics, enabling these intrinsic conditions to be inferred at regional scales through integrated mapping and analyses. Permafrost landsystems also provide a conceptual framework to inform predictions of thaw-driven change, and to formulate, share, and apply permafrost knowledge across scales, disciplines, and ways of knowing.