Scholarlink

<p>The delivery of China’s climate policy has substantial global implications, yet persistent gaps between policy targets and implementation raise concerns about policy credibility. This study presents a structured credibility assessment of 292 targets across 58 national climate and energy policies, including China’s updated 2035 NDC. We apply a morphological scenario framework to examine interactions between policy uncertainty and socio-economic and technological drivers, embedding these scenarios in an integrated assessment model under two global contexts: one aligned with current NDCs and one consistent with global net-zero ambition. We find that timely or accelerated delivery of China’s net-zero target could partially offset insufficient ambition elsewhere by mid-century. Full delivery by 2050 reduces global CO₂ emissions to 13 Gt, compared with 23 Gt without such policies. Policy delivery uncertainty alone could imply up to ~500 GtCO₂ difference in cumulative emissions by 2100 (~0.17 °C warming).</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Global implications of uncertainty in China’s climate policy delivery

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月6日

查看全文
  • Dan Zhang,
  • Steve Pye,
  • Jim Watson,
  • James Price,
  • Dan Welsby

摘要

The delivery of China’s climate policy has substantial global implications, yet persistent gaps between policy targets and implementation raise concerns about policy credibility. This study presents a structured credibility assessment of 292 targets across 58 national climate and energy policies, including China’s updated 2035 NDC. We apply a morphological scenario framework to examine interactions between policy uncertainty and socio-economic and technological drivers, embedding these scenarios in an integrated assessment model under two global contexts: one aligned with current NDCs and one consistent with global net-zero ambition. We find that timely or accelerated delivery of China’s net-zero target could partially offset insufficient ambition elsewhere by mid-century. Full delivery by 2050 reduces global CO₂ emissions to 13 Gt, compared with 23 Gt without such policies. Policy delivery uncertainty alone could imply up to ~500 GtCO₂ difference in cumulative emissions by 2100 (~0.17 °C warming).