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<p>Land use management can help address the human-induced climate and biodiversity crises. However, substantial transformations in land systems are needed to meet internationally agreed targets concerning nature conservation, restoration, sustainable agriculture, and tree cover. Such transformations influence land-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon, and could have particularly strong effects on local to regional climate through changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Here, we explore how land use management in Europe, consistent with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the Nature Futures Framework, and a sustainable low-emissions scenario, would affect the European climate mid-century. Using Earth System Modelling and detailed land use, habitat, and species projections, we show that policy implementation guided by relational values (Nature as Culture) could lead to additional warming and drying further threatening biodiversity and human well-being. Conversely, promoting intrinsic values (Nature for Nature) or ecosystem services (Nature for Society) would not add major challenges for climate adaptation and mitigation. These different outcomes highlight the need to develop integrative land use scenarios that enhance biodiversity and stabilise the climate, while considering feedbacks from land to the atmosphere. Such scenarios could help navigate trade-offs and inform policy implementation in Europe.</p>

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Climate response to Nature Future scenarios in a regional Earth System Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月16日

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  • Petra Sieber,
  • Dirk Nikolaus Karger,
  • Niklaus E. Zimmermann,
  • Sara Si-Moussi,
  • Wilfried Thuiller,
  • Gabriele Midolo,
  • Milan Chytrý,
  • Irena Axmanová,
  • Jonas Schwaab,
  • Edouard L. Davin,
  • Matthieu Leclair,
  • Stephan Kambach,
  • Helge Bruelheide,
  • Thomas Hickler,
  • Zvjezdana Stančić,
  • Idoia Biurrun,
  • Behlül Güler,
  • Jürgen Dengler,
  • Jan Divíšek,
  • Peter H. Verburg,
  • Sonia I. Seneviratne

摘要

Land use management can help address the human-induced climate and biodiversity crises. However, substantial transformations in land systems are needed to meet internationally agreed targets concerning nature conservation, restoration, sustainable agriculture, and tree cover. Such transformations influence land-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon, and could have particularly strong effects on local to regional climate through changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Here, we explore how land use management in Europe, consistent with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the Nature Futures Framework, and a sustainable low-emissions scenario, would affect the European climate mid-century. Using Earth System Modelling and detailed land use, habitat, and species projections, we show that policy implementation guided by relational values (Nature as Culture) could lead to additional warming and drying further threatening biodiversity and human well-being. Conversely, promoting intrinsic values (Nature for Nature) or ecosystem services (Nature for Society) would not add major challenges for climate adaptation and mitigation. These different outcomes highlight the need to develop integrative land use scenarios that enhance biodiversity and stabilise the climate, while considering feedbacks from land to the atmosphere. Such scenarios could help navigate trade-offs and inform policy implementation in Europe.