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<p>How fast future sea level rises will depend on the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to warming. AIS projections are shaped by the assumption that sea-level peaks during past interglacials occurred after the North American ice sheet complex (NAIS) disappeared. We synthesize evidence from paleoceanography and allied disciplines to argue that NAIS persisted into some of the warmest interglacials of the last million years. We show that overlooking NAIS persistence may lead to underestimation of AIS sensitivity to warming, and propose that this paradigm shift opens research avenues that can increase confidence in the accuracy of climate and sea-level projections.</p>

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North American ice sheet persistence into past interglacials should inform future projections

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月6日

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  • Roger C. Creel,
  • Robert E. Kopp,
  • Andrea Dutton,
  • Yuxin Zhou,
  • Maureen E. Raymo,
  • Catherine J. Britt,
  • Robert M. DeConto

摘要

How fast future sea level rises will depend on the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to warming. AIS projections are shaped by the assumption that sea-level peaks during past interglacials occurred after the North American ice sheet complex (NAIS) disappeared. We synthesize evidence from paleoceanography and allied disciplines to argue that NAIS persisted into some of the warmest interglacials of the last million years. We show that overlooking NAIS persistence may lead to underestimation of AIS sensitivity to warming, and propose that this paradigm shift opens research avenues that can increase confidence in the accuracy of climate and sea-level projections.