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<p>The plastics industry is now confronting the intertwined challenges of environmental leakage and greenhouse gas emissions. Although policy interventions may exert synergistic reduction effects, the magnitude of such synergy remains underexplored. Here, we systematically analyze the material metabolism, environmental leakage, and greenhouse gas emissions associated with 14 plastic types in China over the period 1992–2021, and model the synergistic emissions reduction potentials and relative cost-effectiveness of these plastics under 14 scenarios between 2021 and 2060. Our results show significant heterogeneity in historical emission trajectories across plastic categories. By 2060, the system change scenario demonstrates the greatest potential for synergistic emission reductions and optimized cost-effectiveness. Relative to the 2060 baseline scenario, the system change achieves an 80% reduction in plastic leakage and a 63% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. These results provide a reference for the development of synergistic emission reduction strategies suitable for different plastic types and industries.</p>

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Strategies for synergistic reduction of plastic leakage and greenhouse gas emissions in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月25日

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  • Jingjing Bai,
  • Zichun Huang,
  • Xuewei Liu,
  • Yuxin Liu,
  • Lingyu Tai,
  • Ziyang Lou,
  • Johann Fellner,
  • Wei Liu,
  • Wenchao Ma

摘要

The plastics industry is now confronting the intertwined challenges of environmental leakage and greenhouse gas emissions. Although policy interventions may exert synergistic reduction effects, the magnitude of such synergy remains underexplored. Here, we systematically analyze the material metabolism, environmental leakage, and greenhouse gas emissions associated with 14 plastic types in China over the period 1992–2021, and model the synergistic emissions reduction potentials and relative cost-effectiveness of these plastics under 14 scenarios between 2021 and 2060. Our results show significant heterogeneity in historical emission trajectories across plastic categories. By 2060, the system change scenario demonstrates the greatest potential for synergistic emission reductions and optimized cost-effectiveness. Relative to the 2060 baseline scenario, the system change achieves an 80% reduction in plastic leakage and a 63% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. These results provide a reference for the development of synergistic emission reduction strategies suitable for different plastic types and industries.