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<p>It is uncertain how much life expectancy of the Chinese population would improve under current and greater policy targets on lifestyle-based risk factors for chronic diseases and mortality. Here we report a simulation of how improvements in four risk factors, namely smoking, alcohol use, physical activity and diet, could affect mortality. We show that in the ideal scenario, that is, all people who currently smoke quit smoking, excessive alcohol use was reduced to moderate intake, people under 65 increased moderate physical activity by one hour and those aged 65 and older increased by half an hour per day, and all participants ate 200 g more fresh fruits and 50 g more fish/seafood per day, life expectancy at age 30 would increase by 4.83 and 5.39 years for men and women, respectively. In a more moderate risk reduction scenario referred to as the practical scenario, where improvements in each lifestyle factor were approximately halved, the gains in life expectancy at age 30 could be half those of the ideal scenario. However, the possibility to realize these estimates in practise may be influenced by population-wide adherence to lifestyle recommendations.</p>

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A simulation study of the impact of population-wide lifestyle modifications on life expectancy in the Chinese population

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月7日

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  • Qiufen Sun,
  • Liyun Zhao,
  • Yuxiang Yang,
  • Yinqi Ding,
  • Canqing Yu,
  • Dianjianyi Sun,
  • Yuanjie Pang,
  • Pei Pei,
  • Ling Yang,
  • Yiping Chen,
  • Huaidong Du,
  • Ranran Du,
  • Maxim Barnard,
  • Junshi Chen,
  • Zhengming Chen,
  • Dongmei Yu,
  • Liming Li,
  • Jun Lv,
  • Robert Clarke,
  • Rory Collins,
  • Richard Peto,
  • Robin Walters,
  • Daniel Avery,
  • Derrick Bennett,
  • Lazaros Belbasis,
  • Ruth Boxall,
  • Ka Hung Chan,
  • Charlotte Clarke,
  • Johnathan Clarke,
  • Ahmed Edris Mohamed,
  • Hannah Fry,
  • Simon Gilbert,
  • Pek Kei Im,
  • Andri Iona,
  • Maria Kakkoura,
  • Christiana Kartsonaki,
  • Hubert Lam,
  • Kuang Lin,
  • James Liu,
  • Mohsen Mazidi,
  • Iona Millwood,
  • Sam Morris,
  • Qunhua Nie,
  • Alfred Pozarickij,
  • Maryanm Rahmati,
  • Paul Ryder,
  • Saredo Said,
  • Dan Schmidt,
  • Becky Stevens,
  • Iain Turnbull,
  • Baihan Wang,
  • Lin Wang,
  • Neil Wright,
  • Xiaoming Yang,
  • Pang Yao,
  • Xiao Han,
  • Can Hou,
  • Qingmei Xia,
  • Chao Liu,
  • Lang Pan,
  • Zengchang Pang,
  • Ruqin Gao,
  • Shanpeng Li,
  • Haiping Duan,
  • Shaojie Wang,
  • Yongmei Liu,
  • Yajing Zang,
  • Liang Cheng,
  • Xiaocao Tian,
  • Hua Zhang,
  • Yaoming Zhai,
  • Feng Ning,
  • Xiaohui Sun,
  • Feifei Li,
  • Silu Lv,
  • Junzheng Wang,
  • Wei Hou,
  • Wei Sun,
  • Shichun Yan,
  • Xiaoming Cui,
  • Chi Wang,
  • Zhenyuan Wu,
  • Yanjie Li,
  • Quan Kang,
  • Huiming Luo,
  • Tingting Ou,
  • Xiangyang Zheng,
  • Zhendong Guo,
  • Shukuan Wu,
  • Yilei Li,
  • Huimei Li,
  • Ming Wu,
  • Yonglin Zhou,
  • Jinyi Zhou,
  • Ran Tao,
  • Jie Yang,
  • Jian Su,
  • Fang Liu,
  • Jun Zhang,
  • Yihe Hu,
  • Yan Lu,
  • Liangcai Ma,
  • Aiyu Tang,
  • Shuo Zhang,
  • Jianrong Jin,
  • Jingchao Liu,
  • Mei Lin,
  • Zhenzhen Lu,
  • Lifang Zhou,
  • Changping Xie,
  • Jian Lan,
  • Tingping Zhu,
  • Yun Liu,
  • Liuping Wei,
  • Liyuan Zhou,
  • Ningyu Chen,
  • Yulu Qin,
  • Sisi Wang,
  • Xianping Wu,
  • Ningmei Zhang,
  • Xiaofang Chen,
  • Xiaoyu Chang,
  • Mingqiang Yuan,
  • Xia Wu,
  • Xiaofang Chen,
  • Wei Jiang,
  • Jiaqiu Liu,
  • Qiang Sun,
  • Faqing Chen,
  • Xiaolan Ren,
  • Caixia Dong,
  • Hui Zhang,
  • Enke Mao,
  • Xiaoping Wang,
  • Tao Wang,
  • Xi Zhang,
  • Kai Kang,
  • Shixian Feng,
  • Huizi Tian,
  • Lei Fan,
  • XiaoLin Li,
  • Huarong Sun,
  • Pan He,
  • Xukui Zhang,
  • Min Yu,
  • Ruying Hu,
  • Hao Wang,
  • Xiaoyi Zhang,
  • Yuan Cao,
  • Kaixu Xie,
  • Lingli Chen,
  • Dun Shen,
  • Xiaojun Li,
  • Donghui Jin,
  • Li Yin,
  • Huilin Liu,
  • Zhongxi Fu,
  • Xin Xu,
  • Hao Zhang,
  • Jianwei Chen,
  • Yuan Peng,
  • Libo Zhang,
  • Chan Qu

摘要

It is uncertain how much life expectancy of the Chinese population would improve under current and greater policy targets on lifestyle-based risk factors for chronic diseases and mortality. Here we report a simulation of how improvements in four risk factors, namely smoking, alcohol use, physical activity and diet, could affect mortality. We show that in the ideal scenario, that is, all people who currently smoke quit smoking, excessive alcohol use was reduced to moderate intake, people under 65 increased moderate physical activity by one hour and those aged 65 and older increased by half an hour per day, and all participants ate 200 g more fresh fruits and 50 g more fish/seafood per day, life expectancy at age 30 would increase by 4.83 and 5.39 years for men and women, respectively. In a more moderate risk reduction scenario referred to as the practical scenario, where improvements in each lifestyle factor were approximately halved, the gains in life expectancy at age 30 could be half those of the ideal scenario. However, the possibility to realize these estimates in practise may be influenced by population-wide adherence to lifestyle recommendations.