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<p>The reduction of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) is a key indicator of global warming. In September 2012, SIC reached its lowest recorded value. Since then, sea ice melt has slowed down, showing a linear trend of only −0.4±6.8%/decade from 2012 to 2023, compared to −11.3±3.3%/decade from 1996 to 2011. Here, we demonstrate that the recent slowdown in September sea ice melt is closely coupled with the multi-decadal variability of the preceding summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has transitioned from the lowest point of its negative phase in the early 2010s to a positive phase. During this shift, decreased heat and moisture, along with reduced downward longwave radiation, have contributed to offsetting the long-term decline, leading to a slowdown in Arctic sea ice melting. Additionally, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation plays a primary role in driving the interdecadal variability of the NAO and Arctic sea ice by modulating wave-mean flow interactions.</p>

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Recent slowing of Arctic sea ice melt tied to multidecadal NAO variability

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月26日

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  • Cen Wang,
  • Hui Su,
  • Chengxing Zhai,
  • Jianqiu Zheng,
  • Shiwei Yu,
  • Huisi Mo,
  • Yanjia Wang,
  • Linwei Jiang

摘要

The reduction of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) is a key indicator of global warming. In September 2012, SIC reached its lowest recorded value. Since then, sea ice melt has slowed down, showing a linear trend of only −0.4±6.8%/decade from 2012 to 2023, compared to −11.3±3.3%/decade from 1996 to 2011. Here, we demonstrate that the recent slowdown in September sea ice melt is closely coupled with the multi-decadal variability of the preceding summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has transitioned from the lowest point of its negative phase in the early 2010s to a positive phase. During this shift, decreased heat and moisture, along with reduced downward longwave radiation, have contributed to offsetting the long-term decline, leading to a slowdown in Arctic sea ice melting. Additionally, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation plays a primary role in driving the interdecadal variability of the NAO and Arctic sea ice by modulating wave-mean flow interactions.