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<p>To address the growing frequency, extension, and size of local arboviral outbreaks in Europe we retrospectively analyzed dengue and chikungunya transmission in Italy from 2006 to 2023. We applied generalized additive models to the records of travel-related cases to highlight the spatiotemporal patterns of disease importation, calculated reproduction numbers for six local outbreaks based on autochthonous case data and mapped current transmission risks by applying a computational model that integrates human density, entomological, and climate data. Outbreak locations appear driven by case importation, which is notably higher for dengue – especially from June to October - rather than local transmission risks. Although reporting delays and favorable temperatures allowed onward transmission for several generations from mid-August to mid-November, upon outbreak detection control of transmission was achieved within 15 days. In high-risk areas, significantly longer epidemic risks were found for chikungunya (over 4 months). However, considering observed importation trends, increasingly frequent local dengue outbreaks are expected. Case detection should be prioritized focusing on areas, and in times, where environmental and climate conditions are permissive, regardless of prior outbreaks.</p>

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Risk assessment and perspectives of local transmission of chikungunya and dengue in Italy, a European forerunner

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月7日

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  • Francesco Menegale,
  • Mattia Manica,
  • Martina Del Manso,
  • Antonino Bella,
  • Agnese Zardini,
  • Andrea Gobbi,
  • Anna Domenica Mignuoli,
  • Giovanna Mattei,
  • Francesco Vairo,
  • Luigi Vezzosi,
  • Francesca Russo,
  • Federica Ferraro,
  • Francesco Maraglino,
  • Anna Teresa Palamara,
  • Emmanouil A. Fotakis,
  • Marco Di Luca,
  • Francesco Severini,
  • Luciano Toma,
  • Giulietta Venturi,
  • Claudia Fortuna,
  • Christina Merakou,
  • Francesco Lucia,
  • Giulio Matteo,
  • Esther Rita De Gioia,
  • Francesco Scovenna,
  • Federica Morani,
  • Michele Tonon,
  • Francesca Zanella,
  • Claudio De Liberato,
  • Paola Scaramozzino,
  • Piero Poletti,
  • Patrizio Pezzotti,
  • Stefano Merler,
  • Flavia Riccardo

摘要

To address the growing frequency, extension, and size of local arboviral outbreaks in Europe we retrospectively analyzed dengue and chikungunya transmission in Italy from 2006 to 2023. We applied generalized additive models to the records of travel-related cases to highlight the spatiotemporal patterns of disease importation, calculated reproduction numbers for six local outbreaks based on autochthonous case data and mapped current transmission risks by applying a computational model that integrates human density, entomological, and climate data. Outbreak locations appear driven by case importation, which is notably higher for dengue – especially from June to October - rather than local transmission risks. Although reporting delays and favorable temperatures allowed onward transmission for several generations from mid-August to mid-November, upon outbreak detection control of transmission was achieved within 15 days. In high-risk areas, significantly longer epidemic risks were found for chikungunya (over 4 months). However, considering observed importation trends, increasingly frequent local dengue outbreaks are expected. Case detection should be prioritized focusing on areas, and in times, where environmental and climate conditions are permissive, regardless of prior outbreaks.