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<p>The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report highlights the reliance on sustainable socio-economic pathways to meet the 1.5 °C or 2 °C targets. However, these scenarios lack a quantitative assessment of the impact of global military spending on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Our study shows that events such as the 2001–2011 war on terrorism and the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war led to an increase in CO<sub>2</sub> emission intensity of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.03–0.05) kg/USD for every 1% escalation in global military expenditure as a percentage of GDP (MILEX ratio). This increase accounts for 27% of the total change in CO<sub>2</sub> emission intensity between 1995 and 2023. In scenarios where the global MILEX ratio exceeds thresholds of 12% (for SSP1-1.9) or 24% (for SSP1-2.6), the 1.5 °C or 2 °C climate goals would become unattainable by the end of the century, highlighting the urgent need for a more peaceful international environment to effectively limit global warming.</p>

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Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月22日

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  • Wenjie Dong,
  • Qi Ran,
  • Fei Liu,
  • Rong Deng,
  • Jie Yang,
  • Kaixi Wang,
  • Xinyue Wang,
  • Duofan Zheng,
  • Chenhao Li,
  • Wenjun Liang,
  • Jieming Chou,
  • Wenping Yuan,
  • Deliang Chen

摘要

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report highlights the reliance on sustainable socio-economic pathways to meet the 1.5 °C or 2 °C targets. However, these scenarios lack a quantitative assessment of the impact of global military spending on CO2 emissions. Our study shows that events such as the 2001–2011 war on terrorism and the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war led to an increase in CO2 emission intensity of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.03–0.05) kg/USD for every 1% escalation in global military expenditure as a percentage of GDP (MILEX ratio). This increase accounts for 27% of the total change in CO2 emission intensity between 1995 and 2023. In scenarios where the global MILEX ratio exceeds thresholds of 12% (for SSP1-1.9) or 24% (for SSP1-2.6), the 1.5 °C or 2 °C climate goals would become unattainable by the end of the century, highlighting the urgent need for a more peaceful international environment to effectively limit global warming.